AUD/USD: Price Analysis and Forecast. Technical Situation in the Market

[Ben Graham]

On Thursday, starting in the European session, the Australian dollar sharply bounced against the U.S. dollar from the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA) — this favors the bulls. By overcoming previous weakness caused by weaker-than-expected employment data in Australia, selling pressure on the dollar intensified following weaker initial jobless claims data from the U.S. Oscillators on the same chart are positive.

The nearest resistance is around 0.6680; breaching this level will allow the pair to target the round number of 0.6700, and beyond that, the yearly high. A decisive breakout above the annual high around 0.6707 will open the psychological level of 0.6800 as the next target, with the potential for further growth if the bullish momentum continues to strengthen.

On the other hand, the psychological level of 0.6660 is the nearest support before the round number of 0.6600. A daily candle closing below 0.6600 would undermine the short-term bullish sentiment, opening up the next support area around 0.6550 - 0.6540.

However, as long as the oscillators on the daily chart are positive, the path of least resistance remains upward. It is important to note, however, that the relative strength index (RSI) is hovering near the overbought zone at 68, suggesting consolidation.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, with the MACD line above the signal line, although the histogram has begun to narrow, suggesting a slowdown in growth in the near term.

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