GBP/USD Forecast on December 12, 2025

[Ben Graham]

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday rebounded from the support level of 1.3352–1.3362, turned in favor of the pound, and rose to the 1.3425 level. A rebound from this level worked in favor of the U.S. dollar, resulting in a slight decline. Today, another rebound from the 1.3352–1.3362 level will again allow us to expect growth toward 1.3425, while a close below this zone will increase the likelihood of continued decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3294.

The wave structure shifted into a "bullish" configuration two weeks ago. The most recent completed upward wave broke the previous high, and the latest downward wave failed to break the previous low. Thus, the trend remains "bullish" for now. The informational backdrop for the pound has been weak in recent weeks, but bears have fully priced it in, and the U.S. background also leaves much to be desired. It is difficult for the bulls to maintain pressure, but their position is stronger than that of the bears. A confirmation of the end of the "bullish" trend will only come below the 1.3294 level.

There was no news background on Thursday, but bull traders continued pressing upward for a while out of inertia. Recall that the FOMC meeting ended with a third consecutive monetary-policy easing, and the market is not yet very interested in the outlook for 2026. Jerome Powell stated that further FOMC decisions will depend on economic data. And now traders are understandably nervous about next week, when U.S. unemployment, labor-market, and inflation reports will be released. If the labor-market numbers for November turn out to be weak again, the Fed will have to consider another rate cut in early 2026. And it does not matter what expectations the FOMC "dot plot" showed. If inflation also begins to decline, then a fourth consecutive round of easing will become very likely. The latest ADP report showed no improvements in the U.S. labor market.

Today, the UK released its GDP report for October, and once again the pound has become a source of support for the dollar. GDP contracted by 0.1%, while the market expected a 0.1% increase. The industrial production report was slightly better than expected, but GDP is more important.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair broke above the descending trend channel, above the 1.3118–1.3140 level, and rose toward the 100.0% correction level at 1.3435. A rebound from this level will work in favor of the U.S. dollar and lead to a decline toward 1.3140. Consolidation above 1.3435 will open the way for further gains toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3795. No emerging divergences are observed today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category became less bullish during the last reporting week, but that reporting week was one and a half months ago — October 28. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 7,052, while short positions increased by 10,539. The gap between long and short positions is now approximately 82,000 versus 102,000. However, these figures are from mid-October. The market picture may already be completely different today.

In my view, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the U.S. currency is in demand, but I believe this is temporary. Donald Trump's policies caused a sharp deterioration in the labor market, and the Fed is forced to continue easing monetary policy to stop rising unemployment and support job creation. Thus, if the Bank of England can lower rates once more, the FOMC may end up easing throughout 2026. The dollar weakened significantly in 2025, and 2026 may not be any better for it.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

• United Kingdom — Monthly GDP change for October (07:00 UTC).
• United Kingdom — Industrial Production change (07:00 UTC).

On December 12, the economic calendar contains two entries, both of which have already been released. The information background will not influence market sentiment for the rest of Friday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Short positions could be opened on a rebound from 1.3425 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3362. Long positions may be considered today on a rebound from 1.3362 on the hourly chart with targets at 1.3425 and 1.3470.

Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3470 to 1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431 to 1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

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