GBP/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

Today, the GBP/JPY pair is once again accelerating, attracting buyers as it moves toward the highest level reached earlier this week, which was last seen in August 2008. Despite the negative data on UK GDP and industrial production, the pound did not react to the bad news. At the same time, a combination of factors continues to weaken the Japanese yen, providing a supportive tailwind for the British pound.

Investors remain concerned about Japan's deteriorating fiscal stability due to the large-scale government spending program promoted by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. At the same time, the prevailing risk-on sentiment — reflected in the generally positive performance of global stock markets — is putting pressure on safe-haven assets, including the Japanese yen, which to some extent supports the continued rise of the GBP/JPY pair.

However, the yen's weakening is partially limited by growing expectations that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as soon as next week. This creates a sharp contrast to the outlook for the Bank of England, from which markets expect a rate cut at next Thursday's meeting. This, in turn, may restrain further strengthening of the GBP/JPY pair.

Beyond the central bank decisions, next week market participants will also have to evaluate an important batch of UK macroeconomic data: monthly labor market statistics, new consumer inflation readings, and preliminary PMI figures. Taken together, this calls for a cautious approach when opening new long positions in GBP/JPY and a more measured entry into the upward trend that has already been ongoing for more than a month.

From a technical standpoint, daily-chart oscillators remain positive. The first resistance for the pair lies at 208.900, with major support at the round level of 208.000. The next support is at 207.750, below which the pair will fall back into its previous range. But at the moment, the path of least resistance for the pair remains upward.

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