GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

At the start of the new week today, the GBP/USD pair is attempting to attract buyers, although it lacks bullish confidence, despite holding above the key support levels of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA).

The U.S. dollar failed to extend its modest rebound from a more-than-two-month low on Friday and remains the key factor supporting the GBP/USD pair. Dollar bulls have been reluctant to open new long positions amid expectations of further easing of U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy. Despite the Fed's cautious hints last week, traders continue to price in the possibility of two rate cuts next year, as signs of weakening in the labor market become increasingly evident. In addition, the prospect of appointing a Trump-loyal Fed chair restrains significant gains in the dollar and helps limit downside pressure on GBP/USD. Ahead of key macroeconomic releases this week and central bank–related events, market participants remain cautious.

This week, the focus will be on UK employment data to be released on Tuesday, as well as the U.S. October Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. These will be followed by UK inflation data on Wednesday and the Bank of England's monetary policy decision on Thursday, which will have a significant impact on the movement of the British pound. In addition, the release of U.S. consumer inflation data on Thursday could determine the short-term direction of GBP/USD.

From a technical perspective, prices remain above the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, approaching resistance at the psychological 1.3400 level. Above this level, the next resistance is seen at 1.3440. A break above it would open the way toward the round-number level of 1.3500.

If the pair falls below the 100-day simple moving average, the nearest key support would be the 200-day SMA, below which prices could accelerate their decline toward the 1.3300 level. However, as long as oscillators on the daily chart remain positive, the path of least resistance remains to the upside.

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