Mixed Payroll: Creation of "Positive" Vacancies is Overshadowed by October Brutal Review and High in Unemployment

[Igor Pereira]

The financial market has just received data from Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) November, and reading requires extreme caution. At first glance, the main number seems to exceed expectations, but the details — especially the catastrophic review of the previous month — paint a scenario of economic fragility much more serious than the headline suggests.

By Igor Pereira

The Numbers in Detail

• Nonfarm Payrolls: +64,000 vacancies (Estimative: +50,000).

  • What it looks like: A slight positive surprise, indicating some recovery.

• October Review (The Black Swan): Fell to - 105,000 vacancies (Previous estimate was -25,000).

  • The reality: Last month was much worse than we thought. The economy not only slowed down; it contracted heavily in job generation in October.

• Unemployment rate (Nov): 4.6% (Evaluation: 4.5%).

  • Warning signal: Unemployment continues its high trajectory, overcoming projections and pressing the Fed.

Institutional Analysis: The Manchet Clamp

As an analyst, my institutional reading is clear: The dollar has reason to bleed.

Beginners can look at the number of +64k and think "the job is strong". This is a mistake. If we add November (+64k) with the October review (-105k), we have a negative net balance of -41,000 vacancies in two months. The American labour market is not growing; it is struggling not to sink.

The rise in unemployment to 4.6% confirms the deterioration. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is now cornered: inflation may be a concern, but a recession in the labour market has become the imminent risk.

Impact on the Financial Market (What to Expect)

1. Gold (XAU/USD):

   • Scene: Highly high (Bullish) in the medium term. The structural weakness of employment (negative wage of 2 months) and rising unemployment weaken the argument of "high interest for longer".

   • Price Action: We can see initial volatility due to the "positive" number of 64k (sellers' liquidity hunt), but the macro trend favors the purchase of Gold as protection against the US economic slowdown.

2. Dollar (DXY):

   • Scene: Low-level biases. The Dollar loses its brightness when the American economy shows cracks as deep as a loss of 105k waves in a single month.

   • Expectation: The market should start to price more aggressive interest cuts by the Fed to try to stop the bleeding of jobs.

3. Indexes (S&P 500 / Nasdaq):

   • Mixed reaction. On the one hand, lower interest rates are good for stocks. On the other hand, if the economy is going into recession (as suggested by the October review), the profits of the companies will fall. Caution is the watchword.

Don't just operate today's headline (+64k). Smart Money is looking at the October review (-105k) and 4.6% rate. The macroeconomic scenario changed from "soft deceleration" to "real recession risk".

Manage your risks. The market will be erratic as it digests this massive divergence of data.