Pronunciation of the Fed Confirmed for 20:00 (Hour of Brasilia) – Cortes in January at Radar?

[Igor Pereira]

Sources connected to the New York operating table have just refined the alert: The extraordinary statement of the President of the Federal Reserve will take place at 18:00 ET (Eastern Time).

For us, traders in Brazil, this means 20:00 (Hour of Brasilia) today.

The backstage information that he will address specifically "economic decline" and "cuts in January" is the final confirmation that the Fed capitulated.

Before: The market needed cuts perhaps for March or May.

Now: Speaking in January is admitting that the situation is critical. Fed doesn't anticipate cuts unless he sees a black hole in the internal data we haven't seen yet.

As the event is at 20:00 BRT, institutional liquidity will be lower (post-market closure in sight of the US during the initial Asian session). This makes movements much more violent and dangerous (less orders in the book = larger spreads).

Fuse Adjustment: Do not expect the movement at 18:00 from Brazil. The trigger will be at 8:00.

If the word "January" is officially said: Buy big. Gold must seek to break the historical maxims at the opening of Tokyo.

The DXY must undergo a massive liquidation ("Sell-off") at the opening of Asia.

Risk of "Gap": If you are positioned in the opening of the Asian market (which gains volume around 21:00/22:00 BRT), be careful. The price can "jump" from one level to another without filling orders in the middle.

Order Summary: Stay liquid until 7:55. Follow the speech in real time. If the tone is of economic panic, Gold is the only refuge.

Attention if the speech is to maintain the rates gold may suffer pressure short-term sale, do not operate rumor and wait for a break in structure H4.

I'll be monitoring the terminal at Premium.