Mixed feelings from the NFP – North American session Market Wrap for December 16

Ben Graham · December 16, 2025

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 16

The session started on a sour note following the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which sent conflicting signals to traders and initially weighed on sentiment.

All indexes traded lower after a timid open until the mid-session, when major dip-buying stepped in as key psychological support levels came into play.

The Nasdaq led the reversal, reclaiming 25,000 to turn positive on the day, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones defended the 6,800 and 48,000 marks, respectively.

The Unemployment Rate ticking higher—now sitting above the Fed's 2025 projections—initially sent chills through market participants.

However, as the data was digested throughout the mid-session, stocks were swiftly bought back, erasing earlier losses.

Mixed feelings from the NFP – North American session Market Wrap for December 16 - ExpertFX School — Nvidia, Tesla, Palantir and Oracle save the day in a global red wave – Market Close Heatmap (16:40 P.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – December 16, 2025

Despite the recovery, the path forward remains murky.

The US Dollar is rebounding after a deceptive downside move, and US Treasuries are following suit. Meanwhile, Gold is beginning to look "toppy," suggesting exhaustion. Traders can't seem to make heads or tails of the broader price action, leaving the market in a state of flux.

Oil also got slapped quite harshly. I strongly invite you to check out our recent analysis to see why,

Clarity will likely have to wait until December 18th, when the pivotal Inflation Report is released.

Cross-Assets Daily Performance

Cryptos made a decent comeback despite the firmer sentiment, but it seems that even with the better risk-appetite, the session close is taking back some of this dip-buying.

Oil stands out as a large underperformer today

A picture of today's performance for major currencies

Things were very chaotic in FX today but one trend emerges:

The JPY is rallying back strongly as traders get prepared for a potentially hawkish hike from the Bank of Japan on Thursday. This will be a major event for markets.

The GBP also rallied quite strongly despite a weaker UK Employment rate.

Don't forget to log in to our Bank of England preview.

A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions

The evening session wraps up soon with Japanese Trade Balance and Merchandise Trade.

Tomorrow will be heavily focused on European data. Traders will start a long session with the full slate of UK CPI figures (02:00 A.M. ET).

The Consumer Price Index (YoY) is expected to hold at 3.5%. A miss would heavily weigh on the already heavily-priced cut from the Bank of England on Thursday.

The 04:00 A.M. to 05:00 A.M. ET stretch releases IFO Survey and Eurozone Core HICP numbers.

The North American session will start with Fed Governor Waller's speech (8:15 A.M. ET), but is a pale figure to what's coming later.

Fed's Williams (09:05 A.M. ET) and Fed's Bostic (12:30 P.M. ET) will also be speaking throughout the day as the NA session gets much calmer.

Safe Trades!

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