Bitcoin Could Break Records Again In 6 Months, Grayscale Says

[Ben Graham]

According to a Grayscale outlook released Monday, the asset manager expects rising demand for alternatives and clearer rules in the US to push Bitcoin to a new all-time high in the first half of 2026.

The report lays out 10 key investing themes for 2026 and ties the Bitcoin call to two main forces: growing portfolio demand for stores of value and what Grayscale describes as improving regulatory clarity.

Spot-Bitcoin ETPs reached the market in 2024, the firm notes, and Congress passed the GENIUS Act in 2025, steps that the report says reduce barriers for big investors.

Macro Risks And Demand For Crypto

Grayscale frames its outlook around a simple macro point. Rising public debt and the risk that fiat currencies lose buying power are pushing some money toward Bitcoin and Ether, the report says.

That argument will sound familiar to many institutional buyers. It is also a broad claim. No exact price targets were offered for Bitcoin, only a view that valuations will climb in 2026 and that the so-called four-year cycle may be ending.

Stablecoins are another major theme. Grayscale expects stablecoin use to grow: cross-border payments, collateral on derivatives, even use on corporate balance sheets are all mentioned as likely developments.

Asset Tokenization And DeFi Growth

Reports have disclosed that Grayscale sees asset tokenization reaching an inflection point next year. Lending protocols and staking are singled out as areas where activity could expand.

The firm foresees practical outcomes: stablecoins in payment rails, more institutional access to staking, and tokenized assets showing up in trading and custody systems.

Grayscale also flags two narratives it does not expect to move markets in 2026 — quantum computing risk for crypto and digital asset treasuries — saying research will continue but valuations are unlikely to be affected this soon.

Over the past 3 months, the average return across nearly all crypto sectors has underperformed Bitcoin. This persistent relative weakness highlights a market environment where capital concentration favours BTC.

https://t.co/rFisuVfSY7 https://t.co/lpXqEe9bbW pic.twitter.com/WNtKEKclX7

— glassnode (@glassnode) December 16, 2025

Onchain Data Suggests Quiet Caution

Meanwhile, data from onchain analytics group Glassnode was also cited in this context. Over the last three months, Glassnode reports, the average return across most crypto sectors has underperformed Bitcoin, indicating capital concentration in BTC.

That has not translated into strong faith in leadership. A separate institutional feed, Bitcoin Vector, said dominance fell in the second half of the year, with ETH rotations cutting into BTC’s lead and a weaker rebuild after deleveraging events. In short: funds appear to prefer holding Bitcoin, but are not placing big new bets.

Featured image from YourStory, chart from TradingView