Bitcoin Mirrors Q1 2025 Playbook, Is It Headed To $70,000 Before Year’s End?

[Ben Graham]

As the market volatility continues, Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to hold its short-lived momentum and reclaim a key resistance level for the second time this week. Some market watchers have affirmed that the flagship crypto may continue to have a disappointing end-of-year rally and potentially reach new lows before the pain is over.

New Lows Before A 2026 Recovery?

On Thursday, Bitcoin attempted to break past a crucial level after surging 2.9% from its daily opening. The cryptocurrency has been unable to reclaim $89,000-$90,000 area since the start-of-week correction, which sent the price to a two-week low of $85,145.

Notably, the flagship crypto retested the crucial resistance area twice in the past 24 hours but has been rejected, falling back to the local lows. Market observer Ted Pillows highlighted that BTC has been holding above the $85,000 support zone despite the volatility, which could lead to another retest of the key $90,000-$92,000 zone if it holds.

However, if price break below local support zone, Bitcoin would likely see a retest of the November lows, around the $80,000 mark. Ted also pointed out that the cryptocurrency may be mirroring its Q1 2025 price action, which suggests that a price drop below the recent lows could happen.

Per the chart, BTC briefly bounced in March from its early 2025 correction before recording a lower low in the next few weeks. This was then followed by the Q2 and Q3 recovery rallies that propelled the price to its latest all-time high (ATH) of $126,000.

Now, Bitcoin displays a similar performance, currently recovering from the initial corrective phase. If history repeats, the flagship crypto could see a 10%-15% drop to the $74,000-$76,000 area in the coming weeks before kicking off a rally toward new highs in 2026, the analyst suggested.

Bitcoin To Continue With ‘No Direction’

Similarly, Ali Martinez affirmed that the cryptocurrency is at an inflection point and risks dropping up to 20% if the $87,000 support doesn’t hold. He explained that BTC is breaking out of a bear flag, which could target the $70,000 level if selling pressure spikes.

Meanwhile, another analyst considers that “sentiment [is] flipping based on every last daily candle colour.” Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that Bitcoin has been trading within the $84,000-$93,500 for the past four weeks, “moving up and down in a choppy fashion, while trading in between these two larger levels.”

To the trader, the next few weeks will continue to be “generally very choppy and lack direction” due to lower liquidity and trading volume during the holiday season. “I don’t think you’d be missing much if you log off and come back somewhere early January,” he added.

On the contrary, analyst Crypto Jelle affirmed that despite the low-timeframe struggles, Bitcoin “still flat out refuses to drop lower, no matter how hard bears try.” He noted that price still sits “on a clear weekly support level” that has held since April, explaining that as long as this area holds, price can still reclaim the monthly opening, around the $90,300 area.

As of this writing, BTC trades at $86,138 a 5.3% decline in the weekly timeframe.