The ECB Is Ready to Completely Shut Down

[Ben Graham]

Yesterday, the euro barely reacted to news that the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged for the fourth meeting in a row.

The deposit rate remained at 2%—exactly as many economists had forecast. Policymakers gave no guidance on their next steps, emphasizing that decisions will be made meeting by meeting, based on incoming data. They also said they are inclined to announce the end of the current interest-rate cutting cycle, which has lasted for more than a year and a half.

The ECB's decision was also accompanied by new forecasts pointing to more confident economic growth and a return of inflation to 2% in 2028. These projections inspire cautious optimism, suggesting that anti-inflation measures are nearing completion and that the eurozone economy will remain resilient to external shocks. However, it is important to note that forecasts are only an approximate assessment of the future, and many unpredictable factors could affect their realization. In particular, geopolitical tensions, energy price volatility, and changes in global supply chains represent potential risks that could derail the intended course.

"We once again confirmed that we are in a good position," ECB President Christine Lagarde told reporters in Frankfurt. "Today there was a unanimous decision on interest rates, which we decided to keep unchanged. But there was also unanimous agreement that all options must remain on the table."

Most ECB officials have already made it clear that no immediate action is required to achieve the inflation target. This should support demand for the euro, as it allows proponents of a tighter monetary policy to retain control and continue resisting further rate cuts.

As for inflation, officials signaled that they are prepared to tolerate price growth running below expectations for some time. Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said this does not concern her too much if such deviations are minor. "In the near term, inflation should decline further—mainly because past energy price increases will drop out of the annual figures," Lagarde said. "After that, inflation should return to the target."

As noted above, the euro did not react at all to this news yesterday.

As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to focus on breaking above the 1.1730 level. Only this would open the way for a test of 1.1750. From there, a move up to 1.1770 is possible, but achieving it without support from major players will be quite difficult. The most distant target is the 1.1805 high. In the event of a decline, I expect any serious action from large buyers only around the 1.1705 level. If no support appears there, it would be preferable to wait for a retest of the 1.1685 low or to open long positions from 1.1650.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com