Bitcoin's "Decisive Week", the Illusion of the American CPI and Gold Rebalancing

[Igor Pereira]

Dear Traders,

We're going through one of the most complex and technically loaded weeks of 2025. The market is being pulled by three gigantic forces simultaneously: a statistical distortion in US inflation data, a "wall of options" that is holding Bitcoin and a silent liquidity crisis in Japan.

By Igor Pereira Financial Market Analyst

Below, I connect all the points so you know exactly how to position yourself before the end of the year.

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1. Bitcoin's Gamma Flush: Why is the Price Locked?

Many students have asked me: "Igor, why doesn't the BTC go up with the good news and don't fall down with the bad news?". The answer lies in the derivative structure.

We are facing a massive options expiration event. About $415 million in notional exposure expire in the next 8 days, which represents two thirds of the short-term pressure.

• The Critical Date (26 December): The display chart shows that $287 million (46.2% of the total) expire only on December 26.

• The Pinning Effect: When there's so much money at stake, the big players (market makers) have incentive to keep the price boring and sidelined so that the options expire without value. If the BTC goes too high or falls too high, they lose money.

• What to Expect: Until the 26th, expect frustration and false movements ("chop"). Once that date passes and the $287 million pressure comes off the market, the price will be free to move without intraday manipulation.

2. CPI's "mirrage" and the Danger of Unemployment

The inflation data released today looks perfect for the Federal Reserve, but there's a serious statistical footprint.

• The Manchet: CPI Core (Nucleo) fell to 2.6%, the lowest level since March 2021. The General CPI came in 2.7%, below the forecast of 3.0%.

• The Hidden Reality: As we look at the official BLS table, we see that data from October and November 2025 are not available due to lack of government appropriations.

• Distortion in Housing: The "Shelter" chart shows the largest two-month net drop since the pandemic. Since there was no actual data collection, this is probably an algorithmic estimate, which makes the "fall of inflation" artificial.

• The Real Data: What is not artificial is unemployment. The unemployment rate (U-3) went up to 4.6%, maximum since 2021. That forces the Fed to cut interest, not because inflation is over, but because the labor market is breaking.

3. Gold and miners: Opportunity in GDX

While the Dollar suffers from high unemployment, the gold sector gains an important technical catalyst. The ETF of Gold Mining (GDX) underwent a rebalancing that became effective after the closure of December 19.

• New Entries: Actions like Zijin Gold (2259 HK), Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN) and G Mining Ventures (GMIN CN) were added to the index. This generates mandatory purchase flow by passive funds.

• Weights: Giants like Agnico Eagle Mines and Franco-Nevada their weight increased, reinforcing the quality of the index.

4. Japan: The Securities Escape (JGBs)

Finally, in Japan, the liquidity crisis continues. In the market operation of December 17, the disparity between supply and demand was glaring.

• For 5-to 10-year bonds, BOJ offered to buy 3,050 (100mi yen), but banks tried to sell ("Competitive Bid") 8.466 .

• This proves that the private market does not want Japanese bonds. The BOJ is forced to absorb this debt by injecting Yen into the system, which weakens the currency and strengthens real assets such as Gold and Bitcoin.

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Conclusion and Action Plan

The scenario for the turn of the year is designed:

1. Bitcoin: Patience to 26 December. Current lateralization is structural due to options. After that date, the real trend must emerge.

2. Dollar (USD): Downstairs. Unemployment at 4.6% is the "preg in the coffin" for high interest policy, even if the CPI data is doubtful.

3. Gold/GDX: The rebalancing of the index and the weakness of the dollar create a favorable entry point, especially in the new miners added to the GDX.

Keep risk management sharp. The market is technical and dangerous.

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By Igor Pereira Financial Market Analyst