American Debt Driven – $38 Trillions and Counting

[Igor Pereira]

While headlines focus on short-term inflation data, the structural foundations of the American economy are emitting red alert signals that we haven't seen in 15 years. The numbers have just been updated and paint an extreme fragile scenario that every trader needs to understand to operate in 2026.

Don't be fooled by the narrative of "soft landing." Data shows a leveraged economy up to the neck.

By Igor Pereira Financial Market Analyst

The 4 Pillars of the Debt Collapse

1. The Suffocated Consumer ($18.6 trillion): The indebtedness of American families reached the historic record of $18.6 Trillions.

   • Impact: Consumption accounts for 70% of US GDP. With the credit card blown, the consumer stops spending. This explains the fall in trust (Feeling UMich in 52.9) that we saw earlier. Without consumption, there is no real growth.

2. The Corporate Break (717 Bankruptcies): In 2025, we recorded 717 major bankruptcies, the largest in 15 years (since the 2008-2010 crisis).

   • Impact: Zombie companies, who survived with zero interest, are dying with current rates. This generates layoffs, fuelling the cycle of unemployment (which has already risen to 4.6%).

3. The "Addictionate" Government in Deficit ($458 Billion in 2 Months): Only in the first two months of the Fiscal Year of 2026, the US government has already accumulated a deficit of $458 Billions – the second largest in history.

   • Impact: The government is spending half a trillion more than they raise every quarter just to keep the lights on. This is unsustainable without massive printing of money.

4. The Total Public Debt ($38 trillion): The national debt broke the record of $38 trillion.

   • Impact: The cost only to pay the interest This debt already exceeds the defense budget. We're entering a spiral of fiscal death.

As the saying goes: "Tough times create opportunities." For us traders, this scenario of debt saturation draws a clear map:

• Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD): The only mathematical exit for a $38 debt Tri is the devaluation of the currency (inflation/impression of money). Gold is the ultimate hedge against tax irresponsibility. With bankruptcy going up, credit risk increases, making assets without counterparty risk (metals) essential.

• Bitcoin Attention (BTC): Bitcoin was born in the 2008 crisis precisely as a response to this type of scenario. With the fiduciary system stretched to the limit, the "digital gold" tends to capture liquidity from those who run away from banking risk.

• Index Caution (S&P500): With 717 big bankruptcies in a year, the stock market is walking on thin ice. Press the stops.

ExpertFX Conclusion: The system is operating at the limit. The record debt and corporate bankruptcies signal that the Fed will be forced to cut interest and print money, not to stimulate growth, but to prevent systemic collapse. This is the perfect environment for valuing real assets.

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By Igor Pereira Financial Market Analyst