XRP Price Holds Key Support While Traders Weigh Breakout Odds and Downside Risk

[Ben Graham]

XRP enters the final days of 2025 trading in a narrow and tense range, with market participants split between expectations of a rebound and concerns over a deeper breakdown.

After a volatile year that included sharp rallies, extended pullbacks, and growing institutional participation, the token is now hovering near levels that have repeatedly defined sentiment. Price action around the $1.8–$2.0 zone has become the focal point, as traders assess the long-term prospects.

XRP’s Technical Structure Tests Trader Conviction

From a technical perspective, XRP remains under pressure despite holding above its key support level. The $1.87 level has been tested multiple times in recent weeks, with each bounce showing reduced momentum. Analysts note that repeated defenses of the same zone often weaken its reliability.

A confirmed daily close below $1.6 is widely viewed as a critical downside trigger. Below that area, the chart structure offers limited historical support, opening the door to faster declines toward $1.2 or even the psychological $1.0 level. Similarly, Momentum indicators are mixed rather than decisively bearish.

Short-term optimism has been fueled by a TD Sequential buy signal within the current $1.9 area, a pattern that has historically preceded relief rallies. However, XRP continues to trade below major moving averages, keeping the broader trend tilted to the downside unless resistance near $2.5 is reclaimed.

Fundamentals and Institutional Signals Offer Contrast

While price action remains fragile, developments around Ripple continue to shape longer-term narratives. Institutional exposure through U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded products has grown steadily, with assets under management exceeding $1 billion.

Ripple’s regulatory positioning has also evolved. CEO Brad Garlinghouse has publicly dismissed claims of price manipulation, pointing to XRP’s deep liquidity and broad market participation.

The company’s move to seek approval for a federally regulated national trust bank further signals a strategy focused on operating within established financial frameworks, rather than operating outside of them.

Cross-Chain Speculation and Market Sentiment

Speculation has added another layer of intrigue. Comments from Charles Hoskinson have reignited discussions about potential collaboration between XRP-related ecosystems and Cardano, particularly in the areas of decentralized finance and privacy-focused infrastructure.

While no formal partnership has been confirmed, the dialogue reflects growing interest in interoperability beyond the XRP Ledger itself, highlighting broader discussions around XRP’s potential role within global financial infrastructure.

XRP remains caught between improving fundamentals and unresolved technical pressure. Traders are watching closely to see whether the current consolidation resolves into a breakout above $2 or a breakdown below long-defended support.

Cover image from ChatGPT, XRPUSD chart from Tradingview