NZD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

For the second consecutive day, the NZD/USD pair has shown strong buying interest, setting a new monthly high.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that the new Federal Reserve Chair may abandon the "dot plot" strategy—an approach that signals gradual interest rate cuts. He also highlighted the possibility of changes to inflation policy and the Fed's communication framework. This comes amid expectations that the incoming Fed leadership will adopt a very dovish monetary policy stance and cut interest rates regardless of current economic data. Such expectations are limiting the U.S. dollar's upside, despite its recent rebound from the lowest levels since early October.In addition, a positive tone in global equity markets is putting pressure on the dollar, reducing its appeal as a safe-haven asset and pushing it down to weekly lows, which creates favorable conditions for gains in the New Zealand dollar. Particularly important is the hawkish posture of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ): Governor Anna Breman stated that the Official Cash Rate (OCR) is likely to remain unchanged for an extended period if economic developments unfold as expected.

These factors confirm a positive short-term outlook for the NZD/USD pair and strengthen the case for further growth.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart remain positive. However, it is worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching overbought territory, which could trigger a corrective pullback. Nevertheless, the MACD histogram is below the signal line but continues to rise, indicating further strengthening of the pair.

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