Gold price could hit $5,000 in H1 2026, says HSBC

[Ben Graham]

Rising geopolitical risks could push gold above $5,000 an ounce during the first half of the year, though a steep correction may follow in the second half, according to analysts at HSBC.

In a note published this week, the bank said it sees gold prices rising to a high of $5,050 an ounce within the first six months — up from its $5,000 target previously.

However, for the entire year, it expects gold to trade within a wide range that could go as low as $3,950 per ounce following a correction later in the year. This correction, its analysts said, could be significant should geopolitical risks subside or if the US Federal Reserve stops cutting interest rates.

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As a result, the bank has slightly trimmed its average 2026 price forecast for gold to $4,587 an ounce from $4,600.

“We see a wide range of $5,050-$3,950/oz. for 2026 and an end-of-year price of $4,450/oz.,” HSBC analysts said, adding that trade is likely to feature high volatility.

“We believe that gold will continue to benefit from strong central bank demand, ongoing concerns over a weaker US dollar, and sustained interest in gold-backed ETFs,” HSBC wrote in its 2026 forecast note.

Beyond 2026, the analysts expect gold prices to rise further, averaging $4,625 per ounce in 2027 and $4,700 in 2028. Its previous average price forecasts for the two years were $3,950 and $3,630 respectively. In the note, they also introduced a 2029 average price forecast of $4,775.

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As of Friday morning, gold was trading above $4,500 an ounce, nearly $50 off its record high. The metal is coming off its best year since 1979 with an annual gain of 65%.

(With files from Reuters)