THE GREAT LIE OF THE EDF: Powell Ignores 4.4 percent Unemployment – Has Political Revenge Began?

[Igor Pereira]

Basic economic mathematics has broken and the only explanation left is political war.

By Igor Pereira Financial Market Analyst

The disparity between the Fed's actions in 2024 and today's stance (13 January 2026) proves that the "Double Mandate" (Employment and Inflation) was replaced by a political survival agenda.

Below, I dissect why the Fed is strangling the economy despite the data screaming for cuts.

Let's put the numbers side by side. Incoherence is brutal:

• Pre-election scenario 2024 (The Pump):

  • IPC Core (Inflation): 3.3% (High)

  • Unemployment: 4.1% (Controlled)

  • EDF ACTION: 50-point cut.

  • == sync, corrected by elderman == They stimulated the economy with hot inflation to help the electoral climate.

• Scenario Today (13/01/2026):

  • IPC Core (Inflation): 2.6% (Low/Controlled)

  • Unemployment: 4.6% (Recession sign - Sahm rule activated)

  • EDF ACTION: Aggressive Posture (Hawkish/Maintenance).

  • == sync, corrected by elderman == They're keeping the money tight as the labor market bleeds. Why?

Stop understanding the economy, you you need to look at politics.Remember our Sunday warning (11/01): The DOJ threatened to criminally indict Jerome Powell.

• The ExpertFX Theory: Powell's in a Mexican Standoff.

  • If he cuts interest now (such as 2.6% IPC data and 4.6% unemployment demand), it will seem that he He gave in to blackmail. The White House and the DOJ. He would lose all credibility of independence.

  • To prove that he is not a political puppet, Powell is forced to maintain a "hard" stance (Hawkish), even if it means throwing the economy into a deeper recession.

An unemployment of 4.5% is not just a number; it is a turning point.

• Negative Spiral: Historically, when unemployment rises 0.5% above the minimum cycle, recession is inevitable. We're past that.

• The Policy Error: By maintaining aggressive posture today, the Fed is making a monumental political mistake. They are fighting a ghost war against inflation (which has already fallen to 2.6%) while the labor market collapses.

The Fed is no longer "data-dependent" (Data Dependent); it is "self-dependent and political".

My Vision: Fed's refusal to cut interest immediately with this data is the final catalyst for a credit event. Something will break (regional banks, commercial real estate) because the real interest is too high for a slowing economy.

Action:

1. Gold ($XAUUSD): He's the only asset in the medium and long term that doesn't depend on Jerome Powell's sanity. If they cause a deflation due to political error, the Fed will have to print trillions later to fix (Panic Pivot in sight + Rally continuations).

2. Dollar (DXY): The US economy is weakening faster than the Fed admits. The market will force their hand whether Powell likes it or not. That helps. Much more to dedollarisation He's already found.

---

Game Turned: The Sahm Rule Chart

There is a recession indicator with a 100% hit rate since 1970. He just crossed the red line today with that 44% dice. Our members Premium You know exactly what to do when that signal goes off.

Ensure your place in the elite market: "> CLICK HERE TO ACCESS THE PICTURE