EUR/USD Analysis on January 13, 2026

Ben Graham · January 13

The 4-hour chart wave count for EUR/USD has a clear, albeit complex, structure over the past few months (see lower chart). There is no indication that the upward segment of the trend, which began in January last year, has been canceled. However, the wave structure from July 1, 2025, onward has become extended. In my view, the pair has completed the formation of corrective wave 4, which has an unconventional internal structure. Within this wave, we observed exclusively corrective structures, leaving no doubt about its corrective nature.

I believe the upward trend segment is not yet complete, and its targets extend as far as the 25th level. In the coming weeks, we can expect the continued development of the upward wave set, which may eventually form a five-wave structure. However, there is no certainty that an impulsive segment of the trend is currently forming, so the entire upward wave set could complete in just three waves. In that case, a new downward segment—also corrective—may already be beginning.

The EUR/USD rate remained almost unchanged on Tuesday. I often note that prices can move significantly before the end of the day, as the US sessions are typically more active than the European and Asian sessions. Therefore, we could have expected price changes on Tuesday—if not for one "but": the market has been extremely passive in recent months, and even major events and reports now result in minimal price movements on the charts.

This week alone, at least two events would have normally triggered market turmoil. It is not every day that the US president (or his administration) files a criminal case against the Fed chair. It is not every day that inflation reports—crucial for the monetary policy of the embattled FOMC—are released. Yet, market movements have been comparable to a minor Polish consumer sentiment release on Monday or a Fed employee caught stealing on Tuesday. While EUR/USD is not completely static—the 4-hour chart shows movement—the price continues to form alternating corrective structures. Each of these structures takes a long time to develop because daily price amplitude is very low.

Given this context, the US inflation report is almost irrelevant. In December, the Consumer Price Index remained unchanged, indicating a low probability of a Fed rate cut this month. No change means no strong reason for the market to buy or sell the dollar. Events related to Trump are increasingly ignored by market participants.

Overall Conclusions

Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the pair continues forming an upward trend segment. Donald Trump's policies and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors for long-term dollar weakness. Targets for the current trend segment may extend as far as the 25th level. The current upward wave set may already be complete, suggesting a possible near-term decline. The trend segment that began on November 5 could still take a five-wave shape, but at present it remains corrective.

At smaller timeframes, the full upward trend segment is visible. The wave count is not entirely standard, as corrective waves vary in size. For example, the larger wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. Such discrepancies are not unusual. It is best to focus on clearly identifiable structures on the charts, rather than adhering strictly to every wave. The current upward structure is clear and unambiguous.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often undergo changes.
If there is uncertainty about market behavior, it is better to stay out.
No analysis can guarantee the direction of movement. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

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