Bitcoin Price To $100K: Why All Eyes Are On The Short-Term Holders

[Ben Graham]

The Bitcoin price resumed its hot start to the new year this week, jumping above the $97,000 mark for the first time since November 2025. The flagship cryptocurrency reignited debates about the current phase of the market in its latest attempt to reclaim its six-figure valuation.

Having surpassed the previously formidable $94,000 technical level, the Bitcoin price seemed set to cross the $100,000 mark again. However, recent on-chain evaluation has brought focus on an ongoing phenomenon among a specific set of investors in the market.

Bitcoin Price Action Could Hinge On STH Realized Price

In a January 16 post on the X platform, pseudonymous crypto analyst Darkfost revealed that the average realized price of the Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) is another key level to watch. This price level represents the average price where the most recent (1-3 months) set of BTC investors acquired their coins.

According to data highlighted by Darkfost, this STH realized price currently sits at around $102,000, meaning that the majority of the Bitcoin short-term investors are at a loss. The market pundit noted that this particular evaluation is adjusted to account for the 800,000 BTC recently moved by Coinbase.

Darkfost noted that, as the Bitcoin price approached the realized price of the short-term holders, the investors are caught between two primary choices. It is either this group of investors holds and hopes for further upside, or they exit once they break even.

Given that they are the most reactive set of investors, the Bitcoin short-term holders have not hesitated in taking short-term profits, as indicated by the latest exchange inflows. Darkfost, however, noted that the STH realized price level will be crucial to watch once all the profit-taking is done.

Darkfost said that the Bitcoin price trading below this cost basis historically represents a good accumulation opportunity. Nevertheless, the analyst warned that bear market periods should be excluded, as short-term holders tend to witness prolonged drawdowns and pain during this season.

STH Cost Basis Key For Momentum To Re-Accelerate

Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish agreed in a recent post on X that the STH average realized price is a key inflection point. According to the market pundit, the Bitcoin price reclaiming this cost basis would signal that recent buyers are back in profit.

Beamish stated that reclaiming the STH realized price would be necessary for bullish momentum to re-accelerate, while failure to do so would keep the BTC market in recovery mode. As of this writing, the Bitcoin price stands at around at $95,300, reflecting no significant change in the past day.