What to watch on January 20? Analysis of fundamental events for beginners

[Ben Graham]

Analysis of macroeconomic reports:

There are again very few macroeconomic releases scheduled for Tuesday. In the UK, relatively important reports on unemployment, claimant counts, and wages will be published. In Germany and the euro area, economic sentiment indices are compiled by the ZEW Institute. In the US, nothing. Of course, the report on UK unemployment is attracting the most attention, but we would like to remind you that in recent weeks the market has reacted very weakly to macroeconomic data, and volatility remains low. The focus remains on Donald Trump's foreign policy and the trade war, which has escalated to a new level since the start of 2026.

Analysis of fundamental events:

No fundamental events are scheduled for Tuesday (according to the calendar), but the market does not react even to important macro reports that shape the stance of the central banks of the UK, the euro area, and the US. There is practically no reaction to fundamental events either. The US dollar has softened slightly at the start of the new week thanks to Trump's new tariffs, but overall market volatility remains low.

Remember that the dollar can still be considered a safe-haven currency for investors, but can a currency be regarded as safe if its country's president openly calls for the annexation of Greenland or for intervening in a coup in Iran? Trump apparently abandoned an air strike on Iran after receiving a message from Tehran about stopping killings of protesting citizens, but the "clouds" over Greenland continue to gather. Trump calls Greenland a "US national security issue" and therefore argues that the island must become part of America as a new state.

Overall conclusions:

On the second trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue to move higher, as the downtrends for the euro and the pound were broken yesterday. The euro can be traded today from the 1.1655–1.1666 area. The pound sterling can be traded today from the 1.3437–1.3446 areas.

Main rules of the trading system:

1. Signal strength is judged by the time required to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened on false signals near a level, then all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can generate a mass of false signals or none at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session; after that, all trades must be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, MACD-based signals should ideally be traded only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
6. If two levels are located too close to each other (5–20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
7. After a move of 15–20 pips in the correct direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

What is shown on the charts:

Support and resistance price levels — levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit can be placed near them.

Red lines — channels or trendlines that reflect the current tendency and show which direction is preferable to trade now.

MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always listed in the news calendar) can strongly affect a currency pair's movement. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with maximum caution, or positions should be closed, to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com