ANALISTA Igor Pereira Posted January 26 ANALISTA Report Share Posted January 26 "Super Wednesday" Wednesday is coming up and Smart Money is already positioning their chips. The report recently launched by Goldman Sachs Throws a bucket of cold water at those who expected an aggressive Fed earlier this year. By Igor Pereira Financial Market Analyst The bank's expectation is clear: Meeting without surprises, maintenance of fees and broad consensus. But, as always, the devil is in the details and the projected calendar. Below, the analysis of what to expect from the Fed on Wednesday and how it impacts the Dollar and Gold. Goldman expects the January meeting to be transitional. The Decision: Maintaining unchanged rates. With GDP running at 4.5% (as we saw last week), Powell has no economic justification to cut now. The Consensus: Influential governors like Waller and Bowman should support maintenance, signaling that the Fed core is still concerned with service inflation or waiting for more data. The point of attention in the report is that Stephen Miran You'll be the only dissident. Reading: When there is dissent in a central bank, it signals the beginning of an ideological fracture. If Miran votes for an immediate cut (or a different posture), he becomes the voice of the "market" within the room. We'll monitor the minutes closely to see his arguments. Dissent today becomes consensus tomorrow. Here's the real Market Move. Forecast: Goldman now only projects two interest cuts in 2026, probably just starting at June. The Impact: This is a real bath for bulls with risk assets that required cuts in March or May. "High for Longer" remains the dominant regime until the middle of the year. If Goldman is right, the Fed will try to be "boring" on Wednesday not to shake the market before the Shutdown deadline (30/01). My Vision: The postponement of the cuts to June keeps the Dollar (DXY) sustained in the short term, but the fiscal vulnerability (Debt/Shutdown) remains the real driver of Gold. Dollar (DXY): You must stand firm or rise slightly if Powell confirms that "Março is out of the question." Gold (XAU/USD): It may suffer short-term volatility with the narrative of "high interest by June", but any fall will be purchased by those who are focused on China's debt crisis and physical demand (SGE to 123). Premium access: The FoMC Trade Our algorithms have detected a pattern of behavior in EUR/USD which is repeated in 80% of meetings where the Fed keeps the fees but postpones the cuts. The profit target is 60 pips in two hours. Ensure your place in the elite market: "> CLICK HERE TO ACCESS THE PICTURE Visitante_93a11b47, Visitante_66f583ef, Visitante_0409b394 and 27 others 2 4 2 5 4 6 3 4 1 Perfect! Thanks! Love it! Haha Confused :/ Oush! Wow! Liked! × 💬 Did you like this content? Your feedback is very important! Liked! Perfect! Thanks! Love it! Haha Confused :/ Oush! Wow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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