Sector "Canada" on the Wheel. Part 2

Ben Graham · January 26

This time, Canada has been accused by Trump of becoming a "dumping port" for Chinese goods. Subsequently, these goods will be directed to the US, circumventing sanctions and tariffs. This is likely what the American president meant when he raised new accusations against Ottawa. The issue is not that Canada intends to continue purchasing Chinese goods. The problem is that China will profit from this, and some goods will flow into the US, continuing to create serious competition for American manufacturers. Trump wants to force Americans to buy American products—at exorbitant prices, unwanted, anything but Chinese. Yet, for some reason, American wages do not want to rise, while spending under Trump has increased by several dozen percent. It's strange that even wealthy Americans prefer Chinese products.

But Trump is not too interested in why. The president believes that the lack of money is the problem of Americans themselves. After all, one can always start working 12 hours a day instead of 10. Then there will be enough money for everything. As a material incentive, various social and medical programs should be cut to spend the saved funds on the defense and military budget.

Returning to Canada, Dominic LeBlanc, Canada's Minister of Trade with the US, stated that Ottawa has resolved only a few pressing trade issues with Beijing. They signed limited agreements. So, there is no talk of a full-fledged free trade agreement. I am sure this information is well-known at the White House, as it is not secret. However, as I have said before, Trump needs a reason to start a new conflict. If the US president accuses another country of "wrongdoing," then it must be so. Not everyone, but many will believe it. Under the guise of restoring justice, Trump will impose 100% tariffs. Then, either Canada will cease trading with China (which is good for Trump), or American taxpayers will pay a little more for familiar goods and services. After all, it is no secret that US import tariffs are paid by Americans themselves. They are the end consumers; therefore, the tariffs are paid not by China or the European Union.

Well, at least the American economy is on the move; there's no hint of a recession, and for any complaints about the Trump administration, the president can step out and say the economy is growing at unprecedented rates. What more do ungrateful Americans need? However, the American people themselves elected Trump as president.

Wave picture for EUR/USD:

Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward segment of the trend. Trump's policy and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the American currency. The targets for the current trend segment may reach the 25-figure mark. At the moment, I believe corrective wave 4 has completed its formation, so I expect further price increases, with the first target around 1.1918.

Wave picture for GBP/USD:

The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer. Currently, the presumed wave 5 is building in 5, but the internal wave structure of global wave 5 may take a much more extended form. I believe that the price increase will continue in the near future with targets around the 1.3721 and 1.3913 marks, corresponding to 100.0% and 127.2% according to Fibonacci. After completing the current five-wave set, the instrument may build three corrective waves. But at present, the upward segment is still not finished, and after the correction, I expect a new impulsive trend segment towards the 42-figure.

Key principles of my analysis:

Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to play back and often involve changes.
If you're not certain about what's happening in the market, it's better not to enter it.
There can never be 100% confidence in the direction of movement. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com