Sector "Canada" on the Wheel

[Ben Graham]

Everyone knows about the television show "Wheel of Fortune." Each time, players spin a wheel to determine the sector for the new round of the game. Perhaps in 2026, a similar wheel was brought to the White House, with Donald Trump as host. Since the beginning of the year, the host has already landed on the sectors of "Venezuela," "Iran," "Greenland," and "European Union." Over the weekend, a new round occurred, and this time it landed on "Canada."

The confrontation between Canada and the US began last year when Trump seriously suggested that Canada become the 51st state of the United States. Trump stated that a country like Canada should not exist at all, and it lives exclusively off America. Therefore, it would be fair for it to become part of America, with Mark Carney rightly serving as governor of the new state. Canada did not appreciate the offer and immediately faced trade tariffs. By mid-spring, with great difficulty, an agreement was reached to reduce tariffs and de-escalate the conflict, but this is one of those cases where the government tries to act in the country's interests, while the populace is sharply opposed to everything American.

The new year began with renewed aggression from Trump towards Canada. The leader of the White House threatened to impose 100% tariffs on all imports from Canada because of its trade relations with China. There was another such television show, "I Want to Know Everything." Each new episode featured interesting and useful information. The White House copied this program, and now every other statement from Trump falls into the category of "facts you know nothing about." In January 2026, it became clear that to trade with any country, one must receive personal permission from Trump. Washington is doing everything it can to contain China's economic growth and technological development, while its closest neighbor is trading with Beijing without any remorse. This is unacceptable.

Now Ottawa has to make a choice again: either continue trading with China and face 100% tariffs from the US, or reduce trade relations with Beijing to advance Trump's lofty goals. What decision Ottawa will make is still unclear. I have already mentioned that the country's government also does not want to quarrel with its nearest neighbor, led by such a contentious leader. However, Canada's patience is clearly less than the European Union's, and its principles are stronger.

Wave picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend segment. Trump's policy and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the American currency. The targets for the current trend segment may reach the 25-figure mark. At the moment, I believe corrective wave 4 has completed its formation, so I expect further price increases, with the first target around 1.1918.

Wave picture for GBP/USD:

The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer. Currently, the presumed wave 5 is building in 5, but the internal wave structure of global wave 5 may take a much more extended form. I believe that the price increase will continue in the near future with targets around the 1.3721 and 1.3913 marks, corresponding to 100.0% and 127.2% according to Fibonacci. After completing the current five-wave set, the instrument may build three corrective waves. But at present, the upward segment is still not finished, and after the correction, I expect a new impulsive trend segment towards the 42-figure.

Key principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to play back and often involve changes.
2. If you're not certain about what's happening in the market, it's better not to enter it.
3. There can never be 100% confidence in the direction of movement. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com