FOMC BREAKING: Fed Maintains Fees, but "Racha" Started – Waller and Miran Vote for First Court!

[Igor Pereira]

Traders, the decision came out and the Federal Reserve's "consensus" has just been broken. Although the headline is maintenance ("Hold"), the real news is in the fine print: Dissent has arrived.

By Igor Pereira Financial Market Analyst

The Committee decided to keep the rates unchanged, but for the first time in this cycle, we have a split vote of 10-2. Two heavy-duty governors voted against Powell and demanded an interest cut Now.

Below, the analysis of the communiqué and what this "crack" means for the Dollar and Gold.

As Goldman Sachs predicted, the Fed chose not to move the fees at this January meeting.

• The Reason: The revised statement changed the description of economic activity from "moderate" to "solid" (solid). With the economy showing strength in the short term, most of the committee chose to buy time.

• Language: The text removed references to "low-risks" in employment, suggesting that they are less concerned with an immediate recession than they were in September.

Here's the game changer. It wasn't a unanimous decision.

• The Dissidents: The Governors Christopher J. Waller and Stephen I. Miran voted CONTENT maintenance.

• Their Vow: Both preferred to reduce the target of the federal funding rate in 25 basis points (0.25%) at this meeting.

• Why does it matter? Christopher Waller is one of the Fed's most influential and technically respected voices. When Waller says "time to cut," the market listens. This signals that the interest cut is not a matter of "if", but of "when" (probably March or June at the latest). Fed's internally fractured.

Analyzing the marked document:

• Economy: "economic activity has been expanding at a ~~modern~~ solid Pace" -> Hawkish. Force recognition.

• Inflation: "remains somewhat raised" -> Neutral. They haven't sung victory yet.

• Risks: The phrase "in light of the shift in the balance of risks" was removed. This indicates that the Fed returned to a pure "Data Dependent" posture, with no predetermined bias of imminent cut.

The market may have a confusing initial reaction ("Knee-jerk"), but the trend is clear.

My Vision: A split Fed is a Fed that's about to pivot.

1. Dollar (DXY): It may have a short-term discharge due to maintenance ("Higher for Longer"), but Waller's dissent limits any sustainable rally. The dollar bears know that the internal support for high interest is falling apart.

2. Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver: If there is a drop ("Dip") now because there was no cut, BUY. The 10-2 dissent is the plus sign bullish possible for the medium term. It means the Central Bank is behind the curve and will have to run after the damage soon.

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