What to Pay Attention to on January 28? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

[Ben Graham]

Analysis of macroeconomic reports:

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Thursday, and none of them are significant. Essentially, we can only note the reports on US imports and exports, as well as jobless claims. All these reports are secondary. Volatile movements were expected based on yesterday's FOMC meeting, but the results turned out to be "bland," as anticipated. Therefore, the market has likely already priced in this event, and today it will move based on technical factors and new statements from Donald Trump, which have been plentiful in the new year.

Analysis of fundamental events:

There is also nothing noteworthy among the fundamental events on Thursday. The FOMC meeting concluded yesterday evening, and its results were easily predictable by traders. Despite Jerome Powell questioning the possibility of a rate cut in March, this has done nothing to help the dollar. After the announcement of the meeting results, the US currency began to fall again and is currently near its lows of the last 3-4 years. Thus, we fully accept that the rise of the euro and the pound may continue today, especially if Trump decides to attack someone, conduct a military operation in Iran, or raise tariffs. The dollar remains in a very vulnerable position. It has no support whatsoever.

General conclusions:

On the penultimate trading day of the week, both currency pairs will trade based on technical factors. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1970-1.1988, and the British pound in the range of 1.3814-1.3833. Of course, the dollar will not fall every day. There will be pauses, corrections, and pullbacks. But a correction already took place yesterday, and the dollar's decline may well continue today.

Main rules of the trading system:

1. Signal strength is judged by the time required to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened on false signals near a level, then all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can generate a mass of false signals or none at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session; after that, all trades must be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, MACD-based signals should ideally be traded only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
6. If two levels are located too close to each other (5–20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
7. After a move of 15–20 pips in the correct direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

What is shown on the charts:

Support and resistance price levels — levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit can be placed near them.

Red lines — channels or trendlines that reflect the current tendency and show which direction is preferable to trade now.

MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always listed in the news calendar) can strongly affect a currency pair's movement. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with maximum caution, or positions should be closed, to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com