MUDANÇA DE REGIME NO FED: Trump Escolhe Kevin Warsh para Substituir Powell – O Fim da Independência?

Igor Pereira · February 1

Traders, the final piece of the US monetary puzzle was placed on the board. President Donald Trump made his choice to replace Jerome Powell when his term expired in May: Kevin Warsh.

By Igor Pereira Financial Market Analyst

Although markets seem calm at first sight, this appointment carries profound implications for Dollar, Gold and global financial stability. Trump is not just changing a name; he is seeking to align the Central Bank with his economic agenda.

Below is the technical analysis of who Warsh is and what that means for your portfolio.

Warsh's choice occurs after years of Trump's public attacks on Jerome Powell.

The Reason: Trump criticized Powell repeatedly for not cutting interest rates "quick enough"He even threatened to fire him.
The Transition: Warsh enters the scene at a delicate moment, soon after investigations and pressure from the White House on the Fed, raising serious doubts about the future independence of the institution.
The Profile: For Trump, Warsh is the ideal candidate ("central casting"), someone who is not openly hostile but who criticizes current management.

Warsh is not a traditional scholar; he is a market man.

Source: Graduated from Harvard and Stanford, he began his career in Morgan Stanley. (Investment Banking).
Political Experience: He was economic advisor to George W. Bush and became, at the age of 35, the youngest member of the Fed Council in 2006.
Crisis action: He worked side by side with Ben Bernanke during the 2008 crash, but always maintained a skeptical stance about the unbridled printing of money.

Here lies the greatest risk for traders. Warsh's history contradicts Trump's will.

The Hawk History: After 2008 Warsh was a critic of quantitative flexibility (QE), warning about risks of inflation and long-term financial instability. That, theoretically, would be bad for risk assets (Actions/Crypto) that depend on easy liquidity.
The Recent Guinada: Recently, Warsh aligned himself with Trump by defending that "tariffs are not inflationary" and asked for a regime change at the Fed.
Dilema: Trump wants low interest for growth. Warsh historically prefers financial stability and real positive interest. Economists warn that Trump may be "too optimistic" thinking that Warsh will be a "yes sir" for aggressive cuts.

Why didn't the market panic (yet)? Because Wall Street knows Warsh. He's predictable and technically competent. However, the Fed's decision-making structure is not just up to him.

Independence in Check: The big question is whether Warsh will resist political pressure to artificially cut interest.
Asset Risk: If Warsh resumes his anti-QE posture, we might see a negative re-enactment in cryptocurrency and scholarshipsSince the "liquidity spill" can close faster than Powell.

Warsh's nomination is the beginning of a new ideological battle in the Fed.

My Traders Vision:

Dollar (USD): The long-term trend may be to strengthen if Warsh maintains his bias against inflation, despite Trump's rhetoric.
Volatility: Expect turbulence at FOMC meetings as the market tests Warsh's true loyalty: Is he faithful to the economic foundations or the White House?
Warning: The current calm of markets is misleading. The guard change in May will be a critical liquidity event.

Stay connected to ExpertFX School for real-time updates on how this transition will affect XAU/USD and global indexes.