USD/JPY. Price Analysis. Forecast. The Japanese Yen is Depreciating

Ben Graham · February 2

On Monday, the USD/JPY pair is gaining momentum, surpassing the round level of 155.00 and heading toward the round level of 156.00. The movement reflects renewed weakness in the Japanese yen amid waning expectations of a Bank of Japan tightening and a moderate recovery in the US dollar.

The Japanese yen remains under pressure following the publication of weak inflation data from Tokyo: the consumer price index (CPI) has sharply slowed down, indicating a decrease in core inflation pressures and diminishing the need for interest rate hikes in the coming months. This data confirms the central bank's caution after its recent policy normalization, and markets are now factoring in the likelihood of rate increases by spring.

Political factors are amplifying the vulnerability of the Japanese yen: the expansionary initiatives of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi - including tax cuts - and uncertainty ahead of early elections scheduled for Sunday revive concerns about Japan's fiscal sustainability. Investors are wary that stronger support from the parliament may lead to further tax reductions and additional stimulus measures, which would negatively impact Japan's financial position.

However, yen depreciation is partially restrained by risks of official intervention: rumors of interest rate checks and warnings from the Ministry of Finance instill caution among sellers. Global geopolitical and trade threats also fuel latent demand for safe-haven assets, which the Japanese yen represents, potentially providing some support for this currency.

On the other hand, the US dollar is receiving support from fresh macro data: the ISM Manufacturing PMI has surged, confirming the resilience of American industry and stabilizing the dollar after a weak period. This adds momentum to the USD/JPY pair.

From a technical standpoint, the pair has surpassed the round level of 155.00, encountering resistance at the 14-day EMA at 155.50 on its way to the round level of 156.00. If prices manage to break through the round level of 156.00, bulls will face resistance at the 50-day SMA before the 156.50 level. A breakout above the 20-day SMA will return control to the bulls.

Key support is located at the 100-day EMA near the round level of 154.00. And while oscillators on the daily chart remain in the negative zone, bulls lack the strength for a victory. However, the MACD histogram is flattening, indicating a weakening of bearish sentiments. The table below shows the percentage change of the US dollar against major currencies on Monday. The US dollar was stronger against the Swiss franc.