432 Millions of Silver Ounces Still Demand Delivery in March!

[Igor Pereira]

Traders, they tried the oldest trick in the book: Fear, Volatility and Negative Manchets. The purpose of the recent abrupt fall ("Flash Crash") was clear: to scare the March contract holders to sell or roll their positions, avoiding physical delivery.

By Igor Pereira

Financial Market Analyst

They failed.

The official CME data just came out and tells the real story. The "cleaning" was tiny compared to the money wall he decided to stay and pay to see.

Below is the analysis of the data that proves that Smart Money did not blink.

The March 2026 contract is the battlefield.

• Data: According to the CME table, Open Interest for March ended in 86,369 contracts.

• Math: Each contract represents 5,000 ounces. Therefore:

  $86,369 x 5,000 = 431,845,000 {Ounces}$

• The Reality: We're looking at ~432 Million ounces Silver standing for potential delivery next month. This is more than half of the global annual mining production. The physical system does not have this metal available at current prices.

Here's proof that manipulation didn't work as planned.

• The Fall: The "Change" column shows a reduction of only -5.461 contracts.

• The Interpretation: Yes, some leveraged speculators got scared and left (-5k contracts). But considering the violence of the price drop projected to cause total panic, this exit was modest.

• Resilience: The vast majority held their positions. That is not fear; that is resolution. The bank message was "Roll your positions, don't ask for metal." The market response was "No."

Physical delivery does not ask who promised what, nor does it care about narratives. She asks only one question: "Do you have the metal?".

• The Risk: With 432 million ounces still on the board for March, COMEX is trapped. If only a fraction of these contracts require physical (as we saw in February), registered stocks will evaporate.

• The Banking Strategy: The price was dropped to try to force cash settlement (Cash Settlement) at lower prices. But no rational holder, seeing the awards in China ($163/oz), would accept cash settlement at $85/oz.

The paper market can move the price, but it cannot create silver. Every scare that fails only compresses the spring further.

My Vision:

The March contract is the Sword of Damocles over the bankers' heads.

1. Signal: The fact that Open Interest did not collapse along with the price shows that current buyers are entities that need physical (industry/sovereign), not paper speculators. This can force massive deliveries to reach high prices;

2. Target: Stay focused. Volatility is noise. Physical delivery is the truth. And the truth is, they don't have 432 million ounces.

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