Previous Market Bottoms Suggest Bitcoin Price Is Headed To $38,000

[Ben Graham]

The Bitcoin price is currently trading under immense bearish pressure, and the downtrend might not yet be over. Bitcoin has now broken below $70,000 and has extended its decline below $65,000. This price action is part of an extended corrective phase that began after Bitcoin topped out at $126,000 in October 2025, and crypto participants have different outlooks as to when the correction will reach a bottom. 

Amid the uncertainty, an outlook from a crypto analyst known as Sherlock is gaining traction on X, as it points to historical market bottoms that suggest Bitcoin may still be headed significantly lower.

Past Drawdowns Show A Clear Pattern Across Bitcoin Cycles

Sherlock’s analysis focuses on how deep Bitcoin has fallen during past bear markets and how those declines have changed as the asset has matured over the years. According to the data he highlighted, Bitcoin’s 2011 cycle saw a drawdown of about 93% from peak to trough. This is the highest correction for the Bitcoin price to date. That figure reduced to about 86% in 2015, then to 84% in 2018, and further to around 77% during the 2022 bear market. 

The consistent takeaway from these cycles is that each successive drawdown has been smaller than the last. This isn’t surprising, as Bitcoin and the entire crypto market have been growing in size, liquidity, and participation over time.

Using that trend as a guide, the next major bottom correction should continue this progression. The projection is that the correction should drop from 77% in the 2022 bear market to 70% in the current price action. If the drawdown compresses to about 70% in the current cycle, measured from the $126,000 all-time high, then the bottom would land around the $38,000 region.

Dismissing Higher Bottom Targets Like $69,000 And $50,000

The projection by Sherlock received a lot of views and comments on X, with some market participants noting that reflexivity and increased institutional involvement should reduce downside risk this time around. One notable response suggested that when comparing prior bottom-to-top moves against top-to-bottom declines, Bitcoin’s next drawdown should be closer to 55% or 60%, instead of 70%.

Sherlock pushed back on that view by noting how reflexivity can amplify downside moves just as easily as it causes rallies. “Good luck buying your bottom at $69,000, $60,000 and $50,000,” he said.

For the time being, Bitcoin is caught between aggressive sell-offs and growing concern that the larger corrective phase is not complete. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $64,850, having rebounded from an intraday low of $60,255, according to data from CoinGecko. 

The recent price action means Bitcoin is back to trading at its lowest levels since October 2024. If Bitcoin were to revisit the $38,000 area, it would represent a return to price levels last seen during the early stages of the bull market. The last time Bitcoin traded around $38,000 was in October 2023.