Kalshi tightens surveillance like Super Bowl bets beat $170M

Ben Graham · February 6

Kalshi just tightened its trading surveillance days before the Super Bowl, adding an independent oversight committee and new data partners. Nearly $170 million has already flowed into Kalshi Super Bowl bets, putting unusual attention on how fair those markets really are. Prediction markets are expanding fast in the US, while states and federal agencies question where forecasting ends and illegal gambling begins.

The Super Bowl remains the undisputed king of this sport betting volume. This year, legal wagers in the US are expected to hit a record $1.76 billion for the February 8 kickoff at 6:30 p.m. ET.

Kalshi currently commands over 50% of the regulated US market share, but competition is fierce. Polymarket remains the heavyweight for the crypto-native crowd, dominating offshore flows with nearly $4 billion in monthly activity.

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3 days before the Super Bowl:

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— Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) February 5, 2026

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For Kalshi, the Super Bowl Bets Are a Goldmine but Also High Risk

The sheer volume flooding into this weekend’s game is a double-edged sword. It drives revenue, but it also creates the perfect environment for insider trading. Unlike offshore casinos, Kalshi operates under US commodity rules. If a team staffer trades on non-public injury news, it compromises the integrity of the entire platform.

To mitigate this, Kalshi partnered with Solidus Labs, a crypto-native firm specializing in market manipulation detection. Their “HALO” system will monitor order books for wash trading and spoofing.

Additionally, a new advisory committee, including Wharton experts, will publish stats on investigations. This surveillance is critical: strong oversight allows Kalshi to defend its regulatory moat and avoid being lumped in with black-market operators.

That scrutiny already hit other platforms, with states moving to block or restrict access to certain products. We’ve seen this pressure build through Polymarket legal risks and other cases where users suddenly lost access.

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Prediction Markets: Sports Dominate the Volume Wars

You were mistaken if you thought politics was the main sector in prediction markets. More than politics, people love to bet on sports. Sports betting has quietly become the sector’s engine, now accounting for roughly 70% of total prediction market volume. The industry is witnessing explosive growth, with aggregate volumes projected to hit $40 billion by 2026.

(Source: Dune)

Kalshi currently commands over 50% of the regulated US market share, aided significantly by its Robinhood integration. However, the competition is fierce. Polymarket remains the heavyweight for the crypto-native crowd, dominating offshore flows with nearly $4 billion in monthly activity.

Meanwhile, traditional brokers like Interactive Brokers are entering with ForecastEx. The revenue model is shifting, too; platforms are moving from low-fee structures to generating record revenues from the high velocity of sports trading.

The stakes could soon get even higher. Kalshi is seeking approval for margin trading. This would allow traders to borrow funds to place larger bets, effectively turning prediction markets into a high-leverage derivatives playground.

This ambition clashes with ongoing legal battles. States like Massachusetts and Tennessee have moved to block Kalshi, arguing its products violate local gambling laws. The platform’s defense relies on its CFTC designation, but adding leverage could complicate its argument that these are prudent hedging tools rather than high-risk wagers.

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