Zero Gold Discoveries in 2 Years and the Guilt is China? The Start of the Super-Cycle

Igor Pereira · February 9

Traders, while politicians seek guilty for volatility, geology tells us the inconvenient truth that no one wants to admit: The world is running out of new gold.

By Igor Pereira Financial Market Analyst

Today, we have a confluence of three explosive news: the White House attacking China, China buying everything you see ahead, and a historical chart that proves that the global offer has collapsed.

The analysis of why we are only in the early stage of a High Super-Cycle.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent just made a direct public accusation.

The charge: Bessent explicitly blamed the Chinese traders for the sudden and violent oscillations in recent gold prices.
The ExpertFX Reality: Blaming speculators is the standard tactic when you lose control of the market. But the truth is that China is not just "fashioning"; it is drying the physical market. The Central Bank of China bought gold for 15th consecutive month, completely ignoring high prices. Those who accumulate for 15 months without stopping are not speculators; they are a sovereign strategic buyer.

Forget politics for a minute and look at the land. Data from S&P Global and Crescat Capital reveal a terrifying scenario for future supply.

The Historical Data: For the first time in recorded history, global data shows ZERO great discoveries of gold (deposits of at least 2 million ounces) for two consecutive years: 2023 and 2024.
The Pattern Break: Watch the chart. In the 1990s, we had averages of 15 to 20 great discoveries a year. In the last decade, this has fallen to unique digits. Now we've reached the absolute bottom: 0 and 0.
The Meaning: There are no significant new projects in development ("pipeline") capable of changing the global supply curve. Even if the price rises to $5,000, there are no new mines ready to be opened. It's called Inelasticity of Offer.

Crescat experts claim that this is not exclusive to gold; discoveries of most metals have fallen dramatically.

Conclusion: The absence of new mines combined with China's insatiable demand (15 months of purchases) confirms that we are in a Initial stage of a High Super-Cycle Massive. Physical scarcity will dictate the price, not the paper market.

They can print dollars, but they can't print gold mines.

My Vision: Current volatility is noise. The foundation is geological.

Offer: It is nonexistent (Zero discoveries).
Demand: It is voracious (China buying for 15 months).
The Result: The price has only one long-term mathematical direction: Up. The Supply Cliff is coming.

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