“Only” 10.200 Bitcoin at real risk of quantum computing

Ben Graham · February 9

If you think price action is the scariest thing in crypto, think again: getting your wallet completely drained is the true peak of nightmares. In 2025, we explored a new potential threat against Bitcoin: the quantum risk. This technology is so advanced that it is theoretically considered capable of cracking Bitcoin wallets and accessing your holdings freely. A nightmare indeed.

But is it really that catastrophic? No, and we will explain why.

A new report by CoinShares challenges the alarming headlines claiming that quantum computers will destroy Bitcoin. The research finds that only about 10,200 Bitcoins, a tiny fraction of the total supply, are actually vulnerable to meaningful attacks.

This pushes back against previous estimates suggesting nearly half of all Bitcoin could be stolen.

STOP Panic Selling Over Quantum FUD

New CoinShares report destroys the quantum threat narrative:

THE FACTS:
➝ Only 10,200 $BTC truly vulnerable
➝ Previous estimates of 20-50% supply at risk = WRONG
➝ Breaking Bitcoin needs quantum computers 100,000X stronger than today
➝… pic.twitter.com/jZd6IZsV6M

— Crypto Patel (@CryptoPatel) February 9, 2026

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Quantum Computing Concerns Have Grown, But Is The Risk Real?

What exactly is this quantum risk for Bitcoin? To understand the news, you first need to understand the fear. Traditional computers work in a straight line, but quantum computers can calculate many possibilities at once. It is like the difference between trying every key on a keychain one by one versus trying them all instantly.

Because of this power, critics have long worried that a powerful enough quantum computer could “guess” the private keys (passwords) protecting Bitcoin wallets. However, not all wallets are built the same.

Recent estimates from other researchers claimed that 20% to 50% of Bitcoin might be at risk, causing some institutional investors to panic.

This uncertainty is why projects like QONE target the risks Ethereum and Solana share regarding quantum vulnerability, aiming to solve these future security headaches before they happen.

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What Makes Only 10,200 BTC Vulnerable?

CoinShares dug into the technical details to differentiate between theoretical risk and real danger. The report focused on old-school “Pay-to-Public-Key” (P2PK) addresses. In the early days of Bitcoin, your “public key” (which acts like a visible locker number) was exposed on the blockchain code.

While about 1.6 million BTC sit in these old lockers, most are dusted across thousands of tiny wallets that would take too long to crack to be worth the effort. Only 10,200 BTC are in addresses large enough to cause any “appreciable market disruption” if compromised.

Crucially, 92% of Bitcoin is held in modern address types that hide the public key until the coins are spent. This makes them much safer from the math hacks quantum computers use. This highlights the growing conversation around security powered by quantum-era tech, but for Bitcoin specifically, the immediate threat is far smaller than headlines suggest.

Ledger CTO Charles Guillemet confirmed to CoinShares that while Google has a 105-qubit computer, breaking Bitcoin would require millions of qubits. This gives developers plenty of time to upgrade the network if needed.

While some investors continue to look for the best crypto presale for quantum-era gains to hedge their bets, Bitcoin’s core thesis as a secure store of value remains intact.

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