Why the Next Crisis Will Not Be Global, But A Shipwreck US Lonely

[Igor Pereira]

Traders, there is a structural flaw in the US economy that the "experts" refuse to discuss. They may be keeping this private on purpose to avoid panic, or they may simply be blinded by the bias of normality.

By Igor Pereira Financial Market Analyst

The hard truth? The macroeconomic paradigm underwent a radical transformation. The next fall will not be a global contagion as in 2008.

We used to worry about the systemic risk spreading around the world. The new threat is the US Sovereign Insolvency. And when I say that, I'm not talking about a classic cap, I'm talking about Tax Dominance: high inflation, financial repression and forced debt buyers.

If you're protecting yourself against a new 2008 you're fighting a ghost. The global banking system has been compartmentalised. This time, America will not drag the world to the bottom... They're going to be alone.

Below are the five pillars of my "Located Depression" thesis.

America's under arrest. The Fed is obliged to print money to buy Treasury Securities (Treasuries) to prevent the securities market from collapsing.

• The Result: They destroy the dollar's value to save the debt market. It's a choice between currency and bonds, and they chose to sacrifice the coin.

No one is telling you this, but global banking regulations (Basileia III) forced foreign banks to segregate capital.

• Change: A liquidity crisis in New York City does not trigger another automatic margin call in London or Tokyo. The fire is contained within the US financial borders.

The American consumer is no longer the only engine of global GDP.

• The New Dynamic: Emerging Markets (BRICS+) now negotiate massively with each other. If consumption in the USA falls, the impact on Asia and Latin America is much lower than it was 10 years ago.

While the Fed is forced to maintain "higher interest for longer" to combat internal stagflation, the rest of the world (ECB, China) is cutting interest to stimulate growth.

• The Effect: This creates an environment where America stagnates while the rest of the world accelerates.

Where's the real risk today?

• Target: US Commercial Real Estate (CRE) and US Treasury Securities.

• Posse: These toxic assets are on the balance sheets of regional banks American. The rest of the world (as we saw with China this morning) is evicting this exhibition. The problem is domestic.

I'm monitoring three scenarios that could change my vision:

1. If U.S. growth and productivity rises enough (via AI?) to offset the interest payments on the debt.

2. If ERC prices stabilise before the big refinancing wave.

3. If the next shock is, in fact, contagious (which I find unlikely given the segregation of capital).

This is not the end of the world; it is an opportunity to GLOBAL LABELLING.

My Vision: When the US risk is contained, capital does not disappear; it relocates.

1. Where Money Goes: It flows to Commodities (Gold/Silver/Oil), Real Assets (Real Properties outside the US) and Value Actions abroad.

2. The Trap: If you are 100% bought in S&P 500 (passive funds), you are the "collateral damage" they need to reset the system. You're their outflow liquidity.

3. Action: "Don't put all the eggs in the same basket." And please don't keep the basket in just one country. Diversify geographically now. That is not to be pessimistic (doomer); it is to be opportunistic.

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