Why US NFPs for January material much

[Ben Graham]

The US dollar is not having its best spell, and today's denser-than-usual employment report will show how much the US labor market expansion has slowed in recent years.

In addition to the usual monthly payrolls and weekly unemployment claims, the nonfarm payrolls for January due this afternoon also include the long-awaited annual benchmark revisions. These revisions are expected to materially slow the pace of job growth after a preliminary estimate pointed to a record downward revision of 911,000 jobs for the year ending March 2025.

"This year, the annual revisions will have more serious consequences than usual," BMO Capital Markets said. "The labor market now looks to be teetering between net job growth and, possibly, net job losses."

These annual revisions — performed to correct seasonal effects and other measurement issues affecting monthly estimates — are crucial for understanding the true state of the labor market. In prior years such adjustments have sometimes produced significant re?assessments, upward or downward, so analysts are watching closely to see how large this year's revision will be.

The preliminary downward revision of 911,000 jobs was alarming, suggesting that the labor market recovery after earlier shocks was much less robust than thought. If the January report confirms a significant slowdown in hiring, the implications for policy, consumer confidence and corporate investment could be far-reaching and would weigh further on the US dollar.

Any large downward revision would indicate more serious structural problems in the economy than previously believed. That could prompt analysts to revise GDP forecasts and call into question the Fed's ability to maintain current interest?rate settings. Conversely, if the revision is less dramatic, that would point to greater resilience in the labor market despite earlier concerns.

The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.4%.

Along with the benchmark revision to the March 2025 payrolls, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish revised monthly wage data for the entire last year. These changes reflect updates to the BLS model, accounting for business openings and closings and new seasonal factors. Last year, the labor market showed gradual weakening that economists characterized as "low hiring and low layoffs." But the benchmark revision may reveal an even sharper slowdown than previously assumed.

Last week's releases supported that view: US companies announced the largest number of layoffs in January, and job openings (JOLTS) in December fell to their lowest level since 2020.

Technical picture of EUR/USD

On the technical side, EUR/USD is consolidating after a strong move. Buyers should think about taking 1.1925 — only that would allow a test of 1.1957. From there a move up to 1.1994 is possible, but advancing without support from large players will be difficult. The farther target is 1.2037. On the downside I would expect any serious buyer interest to appear around 1.1890. If there are no buyers there, it would be sensible to wait for a new low at 1.1858 or to consider opening longs from 1.1832.

GBP/USD

For GBP/USD, pound buyers should look to take the nearest resistance at 1.3698. Only then will a move toward 1.3730 be realistic; breaking above that will be challenging. The farther target is around 1.3757. On the downside, bears will try to seize control of 1.3660. If they succeed, a breakout would be a serious blow to bulls and could push GBP/USD to 1.3625 with a possible extension to 1.3585.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com