GBP/JPY. Analysis and forecasting

[Ben Graham]

GBP/JPY has maintained its weekly downward momentum for three straight days and, today, Wednesday, has updated its December low. Spot prices have fallen below the round level of 210.00, declining by more than 0.50% on the day and maintaining potential for further losses.

On Sunday, Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, secured a decisive victory in the Lower House elections, removing domestic political uncertainty and paving the way for new fiscal stimulus packages. Market participants now expect that Takaichi's expansionary policy will stimulate the economy and allow the Bank of Japan to maintain its hawkish stance. This continues to strengthen the Japanese yen, which has been the main driver of the GBP/JPY decline since the beginning of the week.

In contrast, the British pound is showing weakness amid doubts about the leadership of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, intensified by the resignation of his key adviser, Morgan McSweeney. The leader of Scottish Labour has also called for Starmer's resignation, increasing uncertainty ahead of signals from the Bank of England regarding possible monetary policy easing. This divergence from expectations of further tightening by the Bank of Japan favors sellers in the GBP/JPY pair.

From a technical perspective, the break below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) for the first time since November 2025 reinforces the short-term bearish scenario and increases the risk of additional losses. Concerns about possible intervention by Japanese authorities to support the national currency are also limiting corrective rebounds in GBP/JPY in the absence of significant data from the UK.

As a result, further weakening below the round level of 210.00 toward the 208.00 level appears likely.

The table below shows the weekly percentage change of the Japanese yen against major currencies, where it is leading gains against the U.S. dollar.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com