XRP Wave 4 Bounce gains steam — Is the final shake still ahead?

[Ben Graham]

XRP is showing strength in its Wave 4 bounce following last week’s sharp sell-off. While short-term momentum is building, the larger downtrend hasn’t been broken yet, leaving the possibility of one final push lower before a true recovery can take hold.

Wave 4 Relief Bounce Unfolds After Brutal Capitulation

XRP is currently moving through a Wave 4 relief phase after last Thursday’s aggressive sell-off. According to CasiTrades, the intensity of that drop with RSI hitting multi-year lows suggests capitulation likely took place. However, it also raises the probability that the broader correction may still require one more wave down before fully completing.

The rebound since that flush has shown strength, which is typical for a Wave 4 reaction after a deeply oversold move. So far, price has already reached the first Wave 4 target at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near $1.52. This level also aligns with the macro 0.65 retracement, creating a strong confluence zone where temporary resistance would be expected during a bounce of this nature.

There is still room for the relief to extend higher toward the $1.65 region, where the 0.5 retracement and macro 0.618 Fib converge. That level now stands as the key decision point. A sustained move above it would strengthen the recovery outlook, while rejection there would increase the likelihood of a wave down to complete the correction.

$1.65: The Line In The Sand For XRP’s Next Big Move

Analyst CasiTrades further explained that if price fails to reclaim and hold $1.65 as support, it would likely pave the way for a final impulsive leg lower, with downside targets sitting around $1.09 and potentially as deep as the $0.90 region.

She noted that the recent relief rally has already helped reset the RSI from extremely oversold conditions. As a result, a drop into those lower targets could form a bullish divergence on momentum indicators, which often marks strong long-term buying opportunities, if the setup materializes.

On the other hand, if XRP successfully breaks above $1.65 and flips it into solid support, the outlook shifts. In that scenario, the focus would be on waiting for a confirmed back-test of the reclaimed level, using that strength as a more favorable and structured entry rather than chasing price prematurely.

CasiTrades emphasized that this is not the moment for panic selling. XRP is hovering near the deeper end of a broader correction, and major technical levels across exchanges have already been tested. Thus, the anticipated final wave down either shortens or fails altogether, potentially marking the beginning of a stronger recovery phase.