Easy: Ethereum survived eight major 50% falls, Lee reminds investors

[Ben Graham]

Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat, is betting on a prompt bounce for Ethereum. He pointed to a pattern stretching back to 2018: each time ETH dropped deep, it later recovered strongly.

That history has shaped the tone of his remarks in Hong Kong, where he argued that previous collapses ended with rapid turnarounds.

Tom Lee Backs A Quick Rebound

According to Lee, Ethereum has endured more than a 50% decline on eight separate occasions since 2018 and each time it came back.

He used those past moves as the basis for his view that another sharp recovery is likely. Analysts often disagree about how much weight to give past cycles.

$ETH 100% V-Shape Record

Tom Lee highlights Ethereum’s eight V-shaped recoveries since 2018.

Tom DeMark, whose models are followed by macro legends like Paul Tudor Jones and used across institutional desks, says a final undercut near $1,890 would “perfect” the bottom.

That… pic.twitter.com/j9zWoUOLgP

— SamAlτcoin.eth (@SAMALTCOIN_ETH) February 11, 2026

Market conditions are not identical now, yet patterns matter because traders use them. Some analysts have highlighted the $1,890 level as a likely low.

They said it might be probed twice in an “undercut” before stabilizing. That kind of setup is common in volatile markets and is used to find entry points.

Staking Squeezes Liquid Supply

Reports note that staking demand remains strong even while prices fall. The validator entry queue has swollen to about 21 days, with roughly 4 million ETH waiting to be accepted.

That has left more than 30% of the total supply locked up — about 36.7 million ETH. People are earning roughly 2.80% APR on staked coins, a modest return by crypto standards, but enough to persuade many holders to lock funds away.

When large sums are immobilized like this, tradable supply thins and price reactions can be amplified on both the way down and the way up.

Ethereum Price Action And Market Strain

Market moves have been sharp. ETH slid to about $1,900 at the time of writing, down 5.4% in the last seven days, and has failed to hold above $2,000 in recent days.

Over the last 30 days, the token fell roughly 36%. Heavy liquidations have been recorded, with more than $1 billion in positions closed out as leverage was forced to unwind.

That generated fast selling and left traders cautious. Economic data, geopolitical headlines, and anticipation of US inflation readings have added to the nervous mood. Some desks now treat any bounce as tentative until volatility eases.

Whether that rebound comes fast or takes time, Lee’s stance is clear: sharp drops have not marked the end for Ethereum in the past. He sees the current stress as another chapter in a familiar cycle, not a structural break.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView