XAG/USD: Price analysis. Forecast. Silver Falls amid decreasing expectations for Fed rate cuts

[Ben Graham]

On Thursday, silver is down, continuing to trade below the 50-day SMA and losing its bullish configuration. The recovery of the white metal, which started from February's lows, has stalled following the publication of fresh US labor market data.

According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the non-farm sector (NFP) added 130,000 jobs in January. This figure exceeded forecasts of 70,000, while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. These indicators alleviate concerns about a sharp slowdown in the US labor market, prompting market participants to reassess their expectations for an imminent easing of monetary policy. Statements from Federal Reserve representatives in recent days also emphasize a cautious approach; several officials note that inflation remains above the target level and that maintaining current interest rates seems justified for the near term.

However, markets continue to price in a 50-basis-point rate cut by the end of this year, which helps limit the decline in precious metal prices. Yet the US dollar struggles to hold its ground at those levels, preventing silver from reversing its decline.

Nonetheless, amid ongoing geopolitical instability and a lack of clarity regarding the timeline for adjusting the Fed's monetary policy, silver is likely to remain highly volatile, with a positive backdrop potentially returning as US monetary conditions ease.

From a technical perspective, the oscillators on the daily chart are negative, and prices have dropped below the 50-day SMA. If prices do not return above this level, it will accelerate the decline towards the 50-day EMA and further down to the 50-day SMA, confirming the strength of the bears. However, if prices manage to return above this level, bulls will have a chance to attempt a recovery.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com