Overview of the EUR/USD Pair. February 17. The Best President in History

[Ben Graham]

The EUR/USD currency pair was virtually immobilized for most of Monday. The volatility was even lower than on Thursday or Friday, when the euro moved by 37 pips daily. As we warned, a "boring Monday" was expected. The market is currently in a state very far from reality. Traders are uncertain about whether to rid themselves of the troubled dollar or to settle for its 15% devaluation against the euro in 2025. We support the first option, as Donald Trump's policies continue to plunge the U.S. not into a "golden age," but into a "dark age."

Last week, the market ignored the NonFarm Payroll and unemployment data, crucial reports that affect the fate of monetary policy at the Federal Reserve. Are there substantial reasons to believe the market ignored them justifiably? No, there are none. The fact is, with the unemployment and Non-Farm Payroll reports, the U.S. dollar... appreciated. Not significantly, but it appreciated. This means the market paid attention to the relatively positive January report while ignoring the data revision for 2026.

We will not ignore the data for 2026 and will break it down in detail. Thus, four out of twelve months in 2026 reported negative Non-Farm Payrolls. For comparison, in 2020 (the pandemic year), there were three such months. Over the last 10 years (excluding the pandemic year and Trump's first year in the second term), the Non-Farm Payrolls never dropped below zero. What conclusion can be drawn? Donald Trump is indeed the best president in U.S. history. He managed to achieve a stable reduction in jobs through immigration policy and the contraction of the real economy sector.

The most interesting part is that official reports indicate strong growth in the U.S. economy. It turns out that Americans are losing jobs, cannot find work, and AI is beginning to displace people from various fields of production, yet the economy is growing like yeast. One must wonder, for whom does America exist? For a computer program or for people, the vast majority of whom are migrants in one way or another?

Returning to the Non-Farm Payroll report, it is noted that, on average, 19,000 new jobs were created outside the agricultural sector each month in 2026. In comparison, in the last year of Joe Biden's presidency, an average of 121,000 jobs were created monthly. This also isn't very much. The U.S. unemployment rate has been rising for 3-4 years; ,the Non-Farm Payrolls figure has also been declining in the long term. However, 19,000 a month is paltry, essentially nothing. Thus, we can only note the fact that vital data were ignored last week and the completely unjustified developments in the forex market regarding the dollar. This fact should be taken into account in trading.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of February 17 is 48 pips, characterized as "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1803 and 1.1899 on Tuesday. The upper linear regression channel points upward, indicating further euro appreciation. The CCI indicator entered the overbought zone, signaling a potential pullback.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.1841

S2 – 1.1719

S3 – 1.1597

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.1963

R2 – 1.2085

R3 – 1.2207

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its correction within an upward trend. The global fundamental backdrop remains crucial for the market and is extremely negative for the dollar. The pair spent seven months in a sideways channel, and it is likely time to resume the global trend of 2025. The dollar has no fundamental basis for long-term growth. Therefore, the dollar can only hope for a flat or a correction. When the price is below the moving average, small shorts can be considered with a target of 1.1719 on purely technical grounds. Long positions remain relevant above the moving average line with targets of 1.1963 and 1.2085.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are pointing in the same direction, it indicates a strong current trend;

The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted;

Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;

Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the probable price channel in which the pair will spend the next day based on current volatility indicators;

The CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com