January FOMC Minutes and Wartime – North American Mid-Week Market update

Ben Graham · February 18

Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global traders
The past few weeks have seen a lot of noise without many repercussions for North American assets
FOMC Minutes for the January Meeting just got released but Markets are turning their attention towards the Middle East

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine current themes in North America and provide an overview of index and currency performance.

Traders took their attention away from the Middle East for about 5 minutes before things turned sour again.

After the second round of talks in Geneva, it was initially announced that progress was decent on the Nuclear issue, but as headlines came and mediators communicated, the theme turned right back into more erratic wartime scenarios.

Just yesterday, Oil broke its week-long support in a surprising fake-out – As explored in our Commodities post from the past session, this offered very interesting opportunities to buy the dip.

Gold is now right back to $5,000 (Get access to our freshly release Gold outlook right here) and Oil is back above $65 in a stellar bull candle.

January FOMC Minutes and Wartime – North American Mid-Week Market update - ExpertFX School — WTI Oil 4H Candle – Source: TradingView. February 18, 2026

Developments are to be tracked closely by traders. The attack doesn't look imminent but the tone really switch, as seen with President Trump's latest posts and White House Press Secretary Levitt's latest communique.

Stocks dipped on the recent switch in tone but risk-sentiment is for now still very contained.

The FOMC minutes for the January Meeting also just released. Some key points were noted:

A heavy consensus for the Fed to hold rates at the last meeting (hawkish if anything)
Mentions of a strong US Economy and stable Treasury Market – This confirms the Fed's view that imminent rate cuts are not a priority
Some concerns on the Equity Markets: Elevated valuations, recent volatility around the AI theme and historically low Credit Spreads.
Consensus on US inflation stabilizing above the 2% target.
"Several participants indicated that they would have supported a two-sided description of the Committee’s future interest rate decisions" implying that hikes are now a considered possibility for some voters.
The Fed's mandate is now back to balance between inflation and jobs.
- You can access the Minutes right here.

Overall, the Minutes were more hawkish than expected. Since the meeting, equities corrected slightly and US CPI showed a decent surprise to the downside. It puts even more emphasis on upcoming Inflation reports – Don't forget to pay close attention to Friday's Core PCE Report.

Since, the US Dollar extended its rally and is now on top of the FX Action.

Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap.

North-American Indices Performance

Except for the European Indexes, coming back trendy amid the recent turn towards quality and diversification away from US Benchmarks, all Indexes have turned lower since last week.

Keep in mind that US Indexes remain very close to their all-time highs despite all the recent talk around AI and rotations towards HALO stocks (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence – Defensive and high debt blue chips).

Dollar Index 4H Chart

The Dollar Index is now pushing way higher amid the recent minutes and FX Volatility. Keep a close eye on the 4H 200-MA at 97.90.

Check out our in-depth Dollar Index analysis right here to learn more.

Levels to place on your DXY charts:

Resistance Levels

August and mini-range Pivot 97.25 to 97.60
Mini-resistance 98.80 to 99.00
99.40 to 99.50 January Resistance
100.376 November highs

Support Levels

August and mini-range Pivot 97.25 to 97.60
2025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00 (mini-range lows, 4H 50-MA)
Early 2022 Consolidation just below 96.00
Trump USD Flash Crash 95.55
95.00 Main psychologic support

US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors

The Dollar is back on top of FX Majors, performing particularly well against the Kiwi Dollar after the rough RBNZ.

Expect more upside if anything happens in the Middle East.

Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors

The Loonie really hasn't shown any particular attraction despite the strong political unity among Liberals and recent outperformance from Oil.

With the miss on Monday's CPI data, it seems that CAD bulls will have to wait a bit more to push for continued upside.

Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD

USD/CAD is maintaining its downward channel with strong technical resilience, so keep an eye on reactions if the action reaches the upper bound (coinciding with the 1.38 Level).

Levels of interest for USD/CAD:

Resistance Levels

1.37230 4H 200-MA
1.3770 to 1.38 Key Resistance (Channel top)
Major Resistance 1.3870 to 1.39 (January highs)

Support Levels

Major Pivot Zone 1.3650 to 1.37
2025 Key support Zone 1.3560 to 1.36
October 2024 Support 1.3450 to 1.35
1.3480 USD-Crash lows

US and Canada Economic Calendar to next Wednesday

Friday's Core PCE Report is the one key data on the calendar for NA Markets until next Wednesday.

And of course, keep a close eye on Middle East Developments.

Safe Trades!

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