Bitcoin’s Record Red Month May Be Setting Up A Reversal: Analysts

[Ben Graham]

The Bitcoin price action has taken a grim tone this month as trading rolls toward what may become a fifth straight red monthly candle. According to CoinGlass, BTC is down roughly 15% this month after closing the previous four months lower, a run not seen since 2018.

Reports note that similar multimonth selloffs in the past were sometimes followed by sudden, strong rebounds, but those outcomes were not automatic. Traders are watching support near recent lows while sentiment indicators show rising caution among both retail and institutional players.

Historical Streaks And Reversals

Reports from Milk Road point to a striking example: after a long losing streak in 2018/19, the market produced large gains in the months that followed. That episode is often referenced by bulls who argue that compressed prices can set the stage for big percentage moves to the upside. Yet context matters. Market cycles are messy, and raw percentage comparisons skip over differences in liquidity, participant mix, and macro settings.

Weekly And Quarterly Signals

Weekly charts are shouting caution in some corners. Analyst Solana Sensei highlighted a run of red weekly candles that echoes parts of 2022, when extended selling drove BTC to the mid-$20,000s. At the same time, quarterly data from the 2022 drawdown shows losses can stack up for long stretches, and those patterns were painful for holders who expected quick turns.

Some analysts have argued that the current cycle looks different because the monthly RSI never saw the same overbought expansion that preceded some prior bear phases; their view suggests rebounds might not follow the old script.

$BTC is looking to log its 5th red month.

Last time this happened was in 2018/19 when we saw 6 red months.

Silver lining: it led to a reversal w/ 316% returns over the following 5 months.

If history repeats – the reversal begins April 1st.

Bookmark this. pic.twitter.com/IZwmdg0peV

— Milk Road (@MilkRoad) February 18, 2026

Bitcoin Price Action

The top crypto’s price movement has been mixed: thin sessions, sharp swings on headlines, muted volume between moves. The market has been both brittle and occasionally steady, depending on who is trading and where liquidity pools sit.

Geopolitics And Market Mood

Geopolitical flareups have acted as a volatility amplifier, and traders are pricing in headline risk more readily than before. Events tied to policies or public comments have dented confidence across risk assets.

US policy shifts and high-profile political statements — including ones linked to US President Donald Trump — are being watched for any spillover into dollar flows and investor risk tolerance. Thin market conditions can turn small news into big moves. That’s exactly what’s been happening on occasion over the last few weeks.

Based on reports and the mix of indicators, a rebound in March or April is possible, but it cannot be counted on. Some traders will prepare for a quick bounce; others will keep dry powder and wait for clearer confirmation.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView