Nasdaq dominates as tariffs get cancelled – Dow Jones and US Index Outlook

[Ben Graham]

• US Stock Benchmarks are fairly muted after the announcement except for Tech, rallying strong
• Traders are still questioning the impact of the tariffs cancelling ahead of a heavy risk-weekend
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

Tariffs have been a large cloud over Markets for the past 15 months, and they will remain so as long as doubts persist.

The US Supreme Court just struck down tariffs in a long-awaited decision. It would be simple if the Trump Administration hadn't formulated its entire game plan around them holding, and if they can't do anything about them, rough times could be ahead.

The Big, Beautiful, Bill allowed for a significant reduction in corporate taxes, under the assumption that government revenues would arise from tariffs on Imports, which could leave a huge funding gap. Markets are now all eyes and ears to see how the Administration responds.

Immediate reactions to the President are not surprising. He called the decision a "disgrace" and has admitted that they already have a backup plan to respond.

As this informative piece explains, American firms will rush to replenish inventories ahead of the response, which could lead to a gigantic trough in the Trade deficit in the upcoming months and dampen GDP expectations quite sharply.

As a matter of fact, Imports rose sharply last month as companies were prepared for the well-priced-in decision and fast-forwarded some orders to get their supply chains on deck for this moment.

High-tier US Morning Data – MarketPulse Economic Calendar

This morning saw a wave of rougher streaks in US data, between misses in ISM Services and Manufacturing, but more shockingly, the Annualized Q4 GDP data, which came in at only 1.4% (vs 3% estimates), dragged lower by the Shutdown and Employment seen throughout the October to November period.

Market reactions are still quite positive, with Nasdaq leading US Benchmarks, as Technology imports initially weighing on the sector could now be facing less severe drawdowns and duties – Some profit-taking is occurring as I conclude this piece, expect volatility in the afternoon!

Let's dive into today’s session charts and key trading levels for the major US indices: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.

Read More:

• Breaking News: US Supreme Court strikes down Trump tariffs
• Silver (XAG/USD) rallies back above $80, more incoming? – Technical Outlook
• USD/CHF carves a bottom after reaching 14-year lows – FX Outlook

Current Session's Stock Heatmap

Current picture for the Stock Market (11:29 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – February 20, 2026

Google, Amazon and Meta are the leading trifecta of this morning's action, helping the Tech sector to outperform this morning's action – Look at Computer Hardware also buoyed by the decision.

Still, US Equities remain at important intersections so expect the action to remain volatile this afternoon.

Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels

Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – February 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Dow Jones and defensive equities have overall lagged since the decision and is now trading close to unchanged, as US Manufacturing could be heavily impacted ahead, particularly depending on how the Administration responds.

The DJIA remains below its 49,500 Pivot Zone.

• Bulls will want to see a close at least within the zone to send better prospects ahead
  • Bears are taking the upper hand with the 50-MA rejection
• Closing below opens the door for a wider retracement ahead
  • Look at the Range lows (47,500 to 48,000) if reactions turn more pessimistic
• Keep in mind that turmoil in Iran could turn the picture to be quite bearish over the weekend!

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• Immediate pivot 49,500 (Rejecting)
• 49,900 to 50,000 Resistance (Range Highs)
• Intraday Resistance 50,250
• ATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500
• Index All-Time highs 50,512

Support Levels

• Major Support – 49,000 (Range lows)
• Past week Support 48,600 to 48,700
• Key Support around 47,500
• 45,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)

Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels

Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – February 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Nasdaq is actually forming a strong push towards its pivot zone, but similarly as the Dow, Bulls will have to push above the 25,000 - 25,250 range to assume bullish times ahead.

There could be a breakout building but with high volatility ahead, look for confirmation above 25,250.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Key Pivot 25,000 to 25,250
• 25,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistance
• Pivotal Resistance 25,700 to 25,850
• 26,246 FOMC highs
• All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300

Support Levels

• 24,500 to 25,600 Key Support
• February Support 24,150 to 24,200
• February 5 lows 24,165
• October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

S&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels

S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – February 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The S&P 500 quickly reversed its bearish outlook from the previous session, enjoying the decision.

Now back above 6,900, if bulls manage to close above here the index could easily rally to test its all-time highs – The 2H 200-MA acts as key resistance but above, there isn't much holding the index.

Watch out for weekend risks and reactions to future reactions.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• 6,904 2H 200-MA
• Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975
• Current ATH 7,020
• All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020 (range highs)

Support Levels

• Mini-Support 6,830 to 6,850 and 2H 50 MA
• 6,800 Psychological Support
• February lows 6,730 (Higher timeframe range lows)
• 6,400 Major psychological support

Safe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!

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