XRP Flashes Rare On-Chain Signal That Once Preceded 114% Gains

[Ben Graham]

XRP on-chain pain has drawn fresh attention this week. Realized losses surged to nearly $2 billion over a one-week span. That kind of move grabs traders’ eyes because it often marks a clearing out of weaker holders.

Santiment Shows Heavy Realized Losses

According to Santiment, the spike is the biggest since 2022. Realized losses happen when people sell for less than what they paid. It is a measure of capitulation. In past cycles, similar spikes happened near major lows and were followed by strong rallies.

https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/16.0.1/72x72/1f4c9.png BREAKING: XRP has seen its largest on-chain realized loss spike since 2022. When the previous weekly milestone of -1.93B in realized losses occurred 39 months ago, $XRP proceeded to jump +114% over the next 8 months.

https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/16.0.1/72x72/1f4b8.png Significant realized losses happen when a large number… pic.twitter.com/gPUU8fYfiY

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) February 21, 2026

https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/a_ca7572.png?resize=1024%2C552

One historical episode that traders point to saw a big loss week before a 114% climb over roughly eight months. Still, that outcome came from a specific set of market conditions that are not guaranteed to reappear.

When Many Small Holders Leave

The recent spike in realized losses has drawn attention from market participants. When investors sell at a loss, the metric rises, reflecting the scale of coins changing hands below their purchase price. Analysts often monitor this data to assess shifts in supply and demand.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/tP4yHN40/

Realized profit and loss figures are commonly used to track market behavior during periods of sharp price movement. While the data highlights the level of losses being locked in, price direction typically depends on broader trading activity, liquidity conditions, and overall market trends.

Price Moves And Market Tone

XRP traded near $1.45 at the time of these reports, up about 1.50% over 24 hours but down roughly 24% for the month. The token moved mostly in step with Bitcoin during a broader market bounce.

Short-term strength like that can be a start. It can also be a brief reprieve inside a longer correction. Traders watching the charts want to see more volume and clear levels taken before calling a trend change.

My #XRP price targets for the next three months:

March $13 April $27 May $70

— CryptoBull (@CryptoBull2020) February 21, 2026

Why Some Forecasts Stretch Reality

Analyst targets running into double and triple digits have circulated online. CryptoBull’s calls for $13, $27, and $70 in a matter of months are extreme and would require dramatic new capital flows.

Market cap math shows those moves need far larger demand than casual optimism provides. Other analysts used prior cycle lows to estimate a possible macro floor between $0.75 and $0.85 by applying a roughly 2.8x multiple.

A Good Signal

Taken together, the data has revived discussion around a rare on-chain signal that in the past came before a 114% advance.

Santiment’s latest figures show realized losses reaching levels not seen since 2022, placing the metric back in focus for traders tracking cycle behavior.

Whether history repeats will depend on incoming demand, broader crypto sentiment, and sustained buying pressure in the weeks ahead. For now, the signal has flashed again, and the market is watching to see what follows.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView