JPMorgan designs gold at $6,300 by 2026 and points to extreme scenario above $8,000

[Igor Pereira]

The gold market returns to the centre of strategic discussions after ambitious projections of the JPMorgan Chase, which indicate a base scenario of $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, with the possibility of an alternative scenario (bull case) above $8,000..

Igor Pereira, financial market analyst, Junior WallStreet NYSE member

According to institutional reading, the current movement is not about buying by panic, but rather about Structural restoration of global portfolios given the american tax deterioration and the change in the allocation of sovereign reserves.

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Data from CME Group show a relevant concentration of open interest in gold options for December, with emphasis on extremely high strikes.

In the options chart of COMEX, it is observed:

• Strong increase in contracts in high strikes

• Relevant presence of deep calls out of money

• Structure that suggests long-term asymmetrical bet

In addition, market reports on massive purchase of strikes call at $20,000 per ounce, a movement that, although highly speculative, reinforces the perception of structural hedge against systemic risk.

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Central banks continue to accumulate gold

Several central banks continue to expand gold reserves as a strategic alternative to the dollar.

Reduction of Exposure to Treasures

Foreign sovereigns have been reducing exposure to long-term US bonds by pressing the debt market.

Increasing tax deficits

American public debt follows an explosive trajectory, with persistent structural deficits.

Low Western allocation in gold

Western investors still keep less than 1% in physical gold or backed ETFs. The JPMorgan thesis suggests that a more adequate allocation would be between 4% and 5%.

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Expected macroeconomic impact

If the global relocation advances to the suggested range of 4%–5%, the potential impact includes:

• Additional compression on long-term yelds via duration escape

• Structural pressure on the dollar

• Increased volatility in fixed income markets

• Systemic restitution of real assets

The central point is simple: Dollars can be issued, not gold. In an environment of fiscal and monetary expansion, scarce assets tend to gain strategic relevance.

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What to expect for the XAU/USD?

In the short term:

• High volatility linked to inflation data and Fed decisions

• Technical movements amplified by the flow of options

In the medium and long term:

• Constructive structure as central banks sustain demand

• Possibility of parabolic acceleration if reliable shock occurs in the Treasures market

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According to Igor Pereira, Financial Market Analyst and Junior Member WallStreet NYSE:

“The current flow has no speculative retail feature. We're looking at an institutional structural repositioning. The concentration of deep calls suggests protection against a scenario of fiscal or monetary disruption.”

He adds:

“If there is effective migration from global portfolios to 4% or 5% in gold, the physical market simply does not behave this demand without aggressive re-recreation. The movement can be exponential.”

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The debate on a possible “Great Reset” returns to the table as:

• Debt grows faster than GDP

• Central banks diversify reserves

• Institutional investors reduce duration

Gold is again treated not only as inflationary hedge, but as strategic asset of monetary sovereignty.

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Conclusion

The projection of JPMorgan reinforces a structural change in global positioning.
If institutional relocation is confirmed, the impact on the XAU/USD can be profound and lasting.

The market may not yet be fully pricing this scenario.

And when the institutional flow is consolidated, the price tends to follow.