Yen and Yuan Gains Featured in Quiet FX Market

[Ben Graham]

In a reversal of fortunes, the Japanese yen is the only G10 currency that is gaining on the dollar through the European morning. Yesterday, it was the only G10 currency to have weakened against the greenback. Still, the general tone in the foreign exchange market is one of consolidation. The notable exception is the Chinese yuan. The onshore yuan rose for the 10th consecutive session, its longest advance since 2010, and reached its best level since April 2023. 

The North American session features the US weekly jobless claims and appearances of two Fed officials on business TV (Miran and Goolsbee), while Governor Bowman testifies to the Senate Banking Committee on Regulation. Canada reports its Q4 current account and Mexico sees its January unemployment ahead of the central bank’s inflation report this afternoon. 

Prices  

G10

• The euro was firm but still within the recent range yesterday. It recorded the session high in North America near $1.1815. It settled above the five-day moving average (~$1.1785 today) for the first time since February 11. Initial gains stalled today near $1.1830, slightly in front of this week’s high was set Monday around $1.1835. The down trendline from last month’s high comes in around $1.18 today, where options for nearly 2 bln euros expire today. The euro found bids late in European morning turnover near $1.1790.

• The Japanese yen was the only G10 currency that was unable to find traction against the greenback yesterday. The nomination of two perceived doves to the BOJ confirms the market suspicions that in the pursuit of relatively accommodative monetary policy, the prime minister’s revealed preference is for a weak yen. This would seem to dilute the threat of intervention and goad the market into fishing for the pain threshold. With yesterday’s gain, the US dollar met the (61.8%) retracement objective of the decline from last month’s high (~JPY159.45). It is trading quietly today between about JPY155.70 and JPY156.45. Nearby support is pegged near JPY155.50

• Ahead of today’s special election in the Gorton and Denton constituency, sterling was bid to a marginal new six-session high today near $1.3575, where the down trendline from last month’s high is found. Sterling was sold back to $1.3520 early in the European session before finding support. The $1.3590-$1.3600 offers stronger technical resistance. 

• The Canadian dollar traded firmer yesterday after tested the month’s low on Tuesday. The US dollar pulled back from CAD1.3725 and eased to about CAD1.3675. The greenback slipped to a three-day low today near CAD1.3660, ahead of the band of support seen in the CAD1.3640-50 area. A break could target the CAD1.3590-CAD1.3615 area next. 

• The firm January CPI print boosted confidence of a May hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia and lifted the Aussie to almost $0.7125 yesterday. The high was recorded in late North American dealings. Follow-through buying today lifted it slightly above $0.7135. Sellers emerged ahead of the $0.7145, where options for a little more than A$1 bln expire today. A three-year high as recorded earlier this month was a little shy of $0.7150. 

EM

• The Mexican peso was firm yesterday but did not really go anywhere. The US dollar traded in a MXN17.1385-MXN17.2250 range and remained in Monday’s range (~MXN17.10-MXN17.30) for the second consecutive session. It is grinding quietly in a MXN17.1540-MXN17.19 range so far today. 

• The yuan’s gains have accelerated. The offshore yuan is strengthening for fifth consecutive session today. Yesterday’s nearly 0.40% gain against the dollar was the most since last August. The US dollar reached almost CNH6.85 yesterday and almost CNH6. 8265. It is up about 2% this month after appreciating by 0.3% last month. Among Asian currencies, only the Malaysian ringgit (~4.4%) and Philippine peso (~2.1%) have outperformed the onshore yuan here in February. The PBOC set the dollar’s reference rate at CNY6.9228 today (CNY6.9321 yesterday). The direction (lower) and magnitude (~0.13%) suggests Beijing’s campaign is not over. 

• The Indian rupee continues to be confined to an exceptionally narrow trading range (~INR90.8125-INR90.9250). It is the second day of marginal lower dollar lows, and the second session of lower highs. 

Other Markets

• Asia Pacific equities were mixed today. Tokyo rose to new highs, while China and Hong Kong saw profit-taking. South Korea’s Kospi continued to race higher with a dramatic 3.65% gain, lifting this year’s rally to almost 49.7%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is edging higher for the third consecutive session. US index futures are slightly softer. 

• The 10-year yields are narrowly mixed. The benchmark JGB yield rose about two basis points to 2.14%. European yields are mostly +/- 0.5 basis points, while the 10-year US Treasury yield is a little softer, pushing back below 4.05%. 

• Gold continues to consolidate. Confined to yesterday’s range, it is trading between about $5156 to a little above $5205. Silver is trading with a slightly heavier bias after reaching a three-week high yesterday above $91. 

• April WTI has fallen to a six-session low near $64.20 today and US and Iranian officials meet in Geneva for what are said to the last negotiations ahead of President Trump’s deadline. 

Data

• The US reports weekly jobless claims and the Kansas City Fed’s February manufacturing survey. Weekly jobless claims are expected to have remained below the four-week moving average (219k). Treasury auctions bills and $44 bln seven-year notes. It is the last coupon auction until three-year notes are sold on March 10. 

• Mexico’s unemployment rate may has ticked up in January to almost 2.7% from nearly 2.4%. It was at 2.7% in January 2025 and the December print was the lowest since March 2024. Banxico will release its inflation report later in the session, and the central bank could update its economic projections. It currently projects 1.1% growth this year after 0.6% in 2025. 

• The eurozone’s money supply and lending figures for January were reported but are no longer the market movers they once were. For the record, M3 growth accelerated to 3.3% from 2.8%, its fastest pace since last July. The EC confidence surveys mostly softened.

• Australia’s private capital expenditures rose 0.4% in Q4, better than the flat reading economists expected after an outsized surge of 6.4% in Q3, the largest quarterly rise since Q3 11. 

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