United States Applications for Unemployment Aid Beat Expectations and Lock the Fed

[Igor Pereira]

Traders, the United States labour market continues to challenge the gravity and restrictive policy of the Federal Reserve. Today's data shows an economy that, despite high interest rates, refuses to cool in the service and employment sector.

By Igor Pereira Financial Market Analyst

Below, the technical dissection of the numbers and how Wall Street should use this "force" to keep the Dollar pressing the commodities.

Data from new employment insurance applications came below what economists were designing, signaling that American companies are still retaining their staff.

• The Data: Initial requests registered 212,000, coming under the consensus of 215 thousand.

• The Comparison: Although slightly above the 208 thousand of the previous week, the number still reflects an extremely tight labour market.

• Reading: As long as this number remains below 230-240,000, the Fed will have no political or economic pressure to initiate a cycle of aggressive interest cuts.

This is where the biggest surprise of today's report lies. Continuous requests, which measure the people who are already receiving the benefit and fail to relocate, have fallen dramatically.

• The Data: Registered in 1.833 thousand, crushing the expectation of 1,860 thousand.

• Trend: The previous number was 1,864 thousand, which shows that the labor market is not only holding those who are already employed, but is quickly absorbing those who have been fired.

• The Impact: That cancels, for now, the "internal freezing" thesis we discussed last week. The American economy still has traction.

These data are what we call "the hawk fuel."

• Dollar (DXY): Receive immediate support. If the labour market is strong, the Fed can afford to keep the interest high to fight the PCE (inflation) we have seen speed up recently.

• Gold (XAU/USD): She's under technical pressure. With the probability of interest cutting being pushed further towards the end of the year, the opportunity cost of carrying gold increases.

• The Institutional Armadilla: Wall Street will use this "strong economy" data to try to take down Gold to our Wyckoff support ash zones.

Make no mistake about the facade of perfection. A non-cold labour market is the Fed's nightmare because it feeds the spiral of wages and prices.

My Vision:

1. Tactical Patience: Leave high frequency robots (HFTs) sell the gold now. We're approaching the liquidity zones we mapped.

2. Focus on the PCE: We'll have inflation figures tomorrow. If employment is strong and inflation comes high, wait a sell-off in risk assets.

3. Gold as Insurance: Remember, Gold is not just about interest; it is about systemic chaos and explosive debt that we discussed earlier.

---

Premium Access: Post-Data Reentry Zones

With the technical fall of Gold induced by these employment data, a re-entry window was opened in a Order Block One hour he was "forgotten." In the Member Area, I just posted the chart with the exact levels of Buy Limit to take advantage of this "discount" of unemployment aid.

Don't operate against the flow. Follow the big ones, enter TO THE PREMIUM at ExpertFX!