EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Ben Graham · 2026-02-26T16:37:40Z

Today, Thursday, at the time of writing, EUR/USD is hovering around the 1.1800 level, virtually unchanged over the past 24 hours after a brief decline triggered by comments from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde.

Speaking before the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, Lagarde stated that the ECB's measures to curb inflation have proven effective and that price growth is expected to stabilize near the 2% target in the near future. She added that food price inflation will continue to slow toward the end of 2026 and settle slightly above 2%. Lagarde confirmed that the ECB's decisions remain data-dependent and emphasized the need to maintain flexibility in monetary policy. Taken together, these signals reinforce the scenario of a prolonged pause in interest rate changes, limiting immediate support for the single currency.

Meanwhile, new business activity surveys in the eurozone present a more mixed economic picture. The Economic Sentiment Indicator fell to 98.3 in February from a revised 99.3 in January, missing forecasts. The Consumer Confidence Index rose to -12.2, slightly better than the previous month's reading, but it remains in negative territory, signaling continued household pessimism.

For better trading opportunities, attention should turn to Germany's preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due on Friday, which could set the tone for the EUR/USD pair.

Against this backdrop, the U.S. dollar is showing moderate strength.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is rebounding from recent lows as investors attempt to assess risks related to U.S. trade policy. Although a Supreme Court ruling challenging certain elements of President Donald Trump's tariff strategy has created additional uncertainty, markets still assume that Washington will seek to preserve its trade agreements.

Investors expect the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meetings, which should stabilize the dollar in the near term.

Weekly U.S. jobless claims data, due later today, will provide further clarity on the state of the labor market.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart are mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining in negative territory, confirming weak bullish momentum.

Meanwhile, a breakout above the 20-day SMA, located at the 50% Fibonacci level, would become a key point for bullish strength. This would open the way toward the intermediate level of 1.1860 on the path to the round 1.1900 level.

On the other hand, immediate support is located at 1.1790, followed by the 50-day EMA and the February low, where the latest recovery phase began.

The table below reflects the euro's percentage change against major currencies today. The euro is showing the greatest resilience against the Swiss franc.