Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) corrective rebound extends further above $5,046 key support

[Ben Graham]

Key takeaways

• Corrective rebound gaining traction: Gold has broken above $5,170 and extended its bounce from the $4,402 low, with price action evolving within a minor ascending channel and maintaining a bullish bias above $5,046 support.
• Falling real yields supportive: The US 10-year real yield has declined sharply from 1.98% to 1.72%, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and reinforcing the rebound narrative.
• Upside levels in focus: While momentum remains constructive, a sustained move above $5,307/$5,320 opens room toward $5,448. A break below $5,046 would jeopardize the recovery and expose deeper supports near $4,960–$4,703.

This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Sell America reemerges after Trump’s tariff defiance – USD/JPY, Gold, Hang Seng Index intraday outlook”, published on 23 February 2026.

Gold (XAU/USD) cleared above a key short-term resistance level at $5,170 (also close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the waterfall decline from 29 January 2026 all-time high to 2 February 2026 low). It printed an intraday high of $5,250 on Tuesday, 24 February 2026.

Short-term technical elements and intermarket analysis suggest the ongoing corrective rebound phase from the 2 February 2026 low of $4,402 is likely still has room to extend further to the upside.

Lower opportunity cost of holding Gold

Fig. 1: US 10-year Treasury real yield medium-term trend as of 27 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView)

The 10-year US Treasury real yield (after subtracting 10-year US inflation expectations from the 10-year US Treasury breakeven rate, which is then subtracted from the nominal yield) has staged a bearish reaction from its key medium-term pivotal resistance of 1.98% (see Fig. 1).

It has fallen by 24 basis points (bps) from 5 February 2026 to a current intraday level of 1.72% as of Friday, 27 February 2026, at the time of writing.

Price actions have reintegrated below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which suggests further potential weakness for the 10-year US Treasury real yield to retest the 17 September/23 October 2025 swing low area at 1.66%.

Hence, via the lens of intermarket analysis, a further drop in the 10-year US Treasury real yield lowers the opportunity cost of holding Gold (a non-interest income-bearing asset), in turn supporting the ongoing rebound seen in Gold (XAU/USD).

Let’s now focus on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) for Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold (XAU/USD) – Evolving within a minor ascending channel

Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) as of 27 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Bullish bias above $5,046 key short-term pivotal support (also the 20-day moving average with next intermediate resistances coming in at $5,307/320 (also a Fibonacci extension) and $5,448 (see Fig. 2).

On the flip side, a break and an hourly close below $5,046 put the minor corrective rebound phase (running from 2 February 2026 low) in jeopardy to expose the next intermediate supports at $4,960, $4,842, and $4,703.

Key elements to support the bullish bias on Gold (XAU/USD)

• Its price actions have started to oscillate within a minor ascending channel since 6 February 2025, with its upper and lower boundaries at around $5,448 and $5,046, respectively.
• Its hourly RSI momentum indicator has been supported by an ascending trendline since 24 February 2026 and just pushed above the 50 level. These observations suggest a potential build-up of short-term bullish momentum.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.