There are growing signs the U.S. economy has entered a slow patch in the first half of the year. From a negative growth reading in the first quarter to a sharp increase in Americans collecting unemployment checks, uncertainty about what lies ahead is showing up in the data. In the midst of it all, gold is the top-performing asset of the year with a 22% year-to-date gain.
The case for gold ownership remains strong, and in a late May report, Goldman Sachs urged investors to buy gold and oil to reduce portfolio risk. “Following the recent failure of U.S. bonds to protect against equity downside and the rapid rise in U.S. borrowing costs, investors seek protection for equity-bond portfolios. During any 12 months when real returns were negative for both stocks and bonds, either oil or gold have delivered positive real returns,” Goldman said.
Let’s dive into the economic picture.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth
In the first quarter of 2025, the U.S. economy went into reverse. After growing in 2024, economic growth turned negative in the first three months of 2025, shrinking by 0.2%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its revision to the government data. Slowing consumer spending, a downturn in government spending, and an 11.3% decline in corporate profits were to blame. With profits slowing, there is probably little incentive for businesses to boost hiring.
Americans Collecting Unemployment Checks Hit 3 1/2 Year High
The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits increased more than expected in late May. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 14,000 to 240,000 for the week ended May 24, the Labor Department said. The number of Americans collecting unemployment checks in mid-May hit the largest number in 3 1/2 years.
This raises the risk that the overall unemployment rate could tick up to 4.3% in the May employment report, from 4.2% in April.
Spring Home Sales on Ice
Just as the spring home-selling season is supposed to be kicking into high gear, pending home sales dropped by 6.3% in April, the National Association of Realtors reported. Pending home sales fell in all four U.S. regions, NAR said.
“At this critical stage of the housing market, it is all about mortgage rates,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. Despite an increase in housing inventory, we are not seeing higher home sales. Lower mortgage rates are essential to bring home buyers back into the housing market.”
As of May 29, interest rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stood at 6.89%, the third weekly increase, according to Freddie Mac.
Next Stop: Gold at $4,000
Amid the signs of economic weakness, investors are turning to the safety of gold. For those investors wondering if it’s too late to buy gold given the big jump already this year, the short answer is no. Gold is in a strong bull market, and precious metals continue to climb. Goldman Sachs targets additional gains in gold prices to the $4,000 area by 2026, but the firm said that even a small move away from the U.S. bond market could drive gold far beyond the $4,000 level. Don’t wait to increase your allocation to gold; make your move today.
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There are growing signs the U.S. economy has entered a slow patch in the first half of the year. From a negative growth reading in the first quarter to a sharp increase in Americans collecting unemployment checks, uncertainty about what lies ahead is showing up in the data. In the midst of it all, gold is the top-performing asset of the year with a 22% year-to-date gain.
The case for gold ownership remains strong, and in a late May report, Goldman Sachs urged investors to buy gold and oil to reduce portfolio risk. “Following the recent failure of U.S. bonds to protect against equity downside and the rapid rise in U.S. borrowing costs, investors seek protection for equity-bond portfolios. During any 12 months when real returns were negative for both stocks and bonds, either oil or gold have delivered positive real returns,” Goldman said.
Let’s dive into the economic picture.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth
In the first quarter of 2025, the U.S. economy went into reverse. After growing in 2024, economic growth turned negative in the first three months of 2025, shrinking by 0.2%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its revision to the government data. Slowing consumer spending, a downturn in government spending, and an 11.3% decline in corporate profits were to blame. With profits slowing, there is probably little incentive for businesses to boost hiring.
Americans Collecting Unemployment Checks Hit 3 1/2 Year High
The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits increased more than expected in late May. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 14,000 to 240,000 for the week ended May 24, the Labor Department said. The number of Americans collecting unemployment checks in mid-May hit the largest number in 3 1/2 years.
This raises the risk that the overall unemployment rate could tick up to 4.3% in the May employment report, from 4.2% in April.
Spring Home Sales on Ice
Just as the spring home-selling season is supposed to be kicking into high gear, pending home sales dropped by 6.3% in April, the National Association of Realtors reported. Pending home sales fell in all four U.S. regions, NAR said.
“At this critical stage of the housing market, it is all about mortgage rates,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. Despite an increase in housing inventory, we are not seeing higher home sales. Lower mortgage rates are essential to bring home buyers back into the housing market.”
As of May 29, interest rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stood at 6.89%, the third weekly increase, according to Freddie Mac.
Next Stop: Gold at $4,000
Amid the signs of economic weakness, investors are turning to the safety of gold. For those investors wondering if it’s too late to buy gold given the big jump already this year, the short answer is no. Gold is in a strong bull market, and precious metals continue to climb. Goldman Sachs targets additional gains in gold prices to the $4,000 area by 2026, but the firm said that even a small move away from the U.S. bond market could drive gold far beyond the $4,000 level. Don’t wait to increase your allocation to gold; make your move today.
Photo by Aidan Tottori on Unsplash
The post Economic Data Shows Cracks in Growth Picture. Gold Up 22% YTD appeared first on Blanchard and Company.