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US PPI hotter than expected and risk-off flows – Market reactions

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US PPI hotter than expected and risk-off flows – Market reactions - ExpertFX School

It is now the second consecutive beat on the Producer Prices Inflation report and there are many reasons to be concerned.

The effect of tariffs is starting to be felt, and with IEEPA tariffs getting ruled out by the Supreme Court, things could be turning ugly in the upcoming CPI reports.

US PPI hotter than expected and risk-off flows – Market reactions - ExpertFX School

Coming at 2.9% vs 2.6% expected on the headline and 3.6% vs 3% estimates on the Core, this morning's report sends out the inflationary fears that Markets have feared for long.

The worst about it is that the progress in inflation has been more consistent than the hopes for a one time boost only.

You can get access to the report right here.

Luckily for rate cut maximalists, risk-off flows are back on the table and this is supporting lower yields. Let's watch a couple morning reactions ahead of Month-End trading.

(P.S: Canadian GDP landed at -0.6% vs 0% expected – Rate hikes are not gonna be a now thing)

US PPI hotter than expected and risk-off flows – Market reactions - ExpertFX School
Core PPI (ex Energy and Food) since 2025 – Source: Trading Economics

Market Reactions

US Treasuries run higher (Yields lower)

US PPI hotter than expected and risk-off flows – Market reactions - ExpertFX School
US 10 Year Treasury Bond (CFD) – February 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Bonds are back on the bid despite the PPI report, indicating that Markets are actually more focused on the Middle East than anything else ahead of the weekend.

Markets are getting anxious about the US demanding that its staff and citizens in Israel leave the embassies and increase security measures.

US PPI hotter than expected and risk-off flows – Market reactions - ExpertFX School
S&P 500 30M Chart – February 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView

US Equities are taking a hit at the pre-open. Today will be a long session, particularly with month-end and weekend risk approaching.

Gold breaks back above $5,200

US PPI hotter than expected and risk-off flows – Market reactions - ExpertFX School
Gold 2H Chart – February 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Gold is now holding well above $5,200. To me, risk-premium is priced in already but if anything happens, a spike to all-time highs could easily occur.

Cryptos are tumbling

US PPI hotter than expected and risk-off flows – Market reactions - ExpertFX School
Current Session in Cryptos (09:30 A.M.) – Courtesy of Finviz

Oil update coming up very soon!

Keep a close eye on headlines and flows throughout the day as today is promised to be quite volatile.

Safe Trades!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

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