Ben Graham PRO Posted 4 hours ago This article is a follow up from Gold (XAU/USD) bulls eye acceptance above $5200/oz, can NVIDIA earnings impact haven demand?Gold has pushed above the $5200/oz handle, eyeing a seventh straight monthly gainThe rally is primarily driven by a surge in haven demand following news of potential imminent US military action against Iran, escalating geopolitical risk.High-impact US data next week (ISM, jobs report) will influence the US Dollar. The Fed is not anticipated to cut rates until at least June due to lukewarm job breadth and elevated price pressures.Gold maintains a bullish trajectory, with the next resistance challenges at $5249/oz and $5300/oz, and downside support at $5,150/oz.Gold prices have pushed beyond the $5200/oz handle on Friday with a hot US PPI print failing to deter Gold bulls. The PPI release led to temporary US Dollar strength but the DXY has since pushed lower to trade in the red for the day.As discussed in the previous piece on February 25, Gold needs acceptance above the $5200 for bulls to seize the initiative. Well, what better way to achieve this than a break and weekly candle close above the $5200/oz handle?Gold fundamental outlook Gold is heading into the end of February eyeing a seventh straight monthly gain. The recent selloff did give market participants food for thought but a renewed surge in haven demand has boosted the precious metal.News earlier today from various sources point to the potential of an imminent US attack on Iran. Chinese authorities have warned their citizens to leave Iran and Israel while an Al-Arabiya correspondent on X posted that the US State Department has ordered the evacuation of non-essential staff and their families from the US Embassy in Baghdad.These moves together point to a rise in geopolitical risk which could explain the rally to end the week.Add to this the pivot away from US stocks and NVIDIA selloff post what was a rather upbeat earnings outlook, markets appear to have found the needed catalyst for bullish momentum to prevail.Given that the weekend is ahead, any move by the US on Iran could lead to significant haven demand and thus Gold could open with a significant gap after the weekend.This is definitely worth monitoring if you are holding trades heading into the weekend.Most Read: US-Iran Talks Advance: Iranian FM confirms progress on nuclear and sanctions issues, Oil prices steadyThe week ahead - ISM, NFP in focus The week ahead brings high impact US data releases, which together with the Geopolitical risk angle could have a massive impact on the US Dollar which remains under pressure as the DXY remains below the 98.00 handle.The ISM Manufacturing and Services report will be a major data release next week.The ISM showed significant strength in January, more recent regional Federal Reserve surveys indicate a slight softening in economic activity for February. Despite this cooling trend, "prices paid" components are expected to remain high, driven by rising oil prices and a heightened risk premium resulting from escalating tensions between Iran and the US.On the labor front, the Friday jobs report is expected to reveal a steady but narrow expansion.Current estimates suggest the economy is adding approximately 50,000 jobs per month; however, the lack of broad-based growth remains a concern. Roughly 70% of all employment gains over the last three years have been concentrated in the private education and healthcare sectors.Following a surprise drop in the previous month, the unemployment rate is projected to tick back up to 4.4%.Ultimately, these combined factors, a lukewarm job breadth and elevated price pressures are unlikely to prompt immediate action from the Federal Reserve.Given this data, a rate cut is not anticipated until at least June. Will we get a surprise? For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD) From a technical standpoint, Gold is currently maintaining a bullish trajectory.A weekly candle close above the $5200/oz handle will ensure the bullish momentum remains strong heading into next week.The next xhallenge will be a break above the $5249/oz handle before the $5300 mark comes into focus.Of course, a US attack on Iran could see these levels smashed as the new week starts with further resistance ahead at $5337 before the $5400 handle comes into fcous.Downside support rests at $5,150/oz. If that level fails to hold, the price may slide further toward the February 24 low of $5,093/oz.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, February 27, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
